Presidential Trial Ballot (October 2020)

Presidential Trial Ballot (October 2020)

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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2020 general election for U.S. president were held today, would you vote for [RANDOMIZE ORDER “the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence”, “the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris”, “the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen”, “the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker”] the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen, the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?"
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categoryTotal
Donald Trump and Mike Pence50%
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris45%
Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy "Spike" Cohen2%
Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker2%
Someone else1%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2020 general election for U.S. president were held today, would you vote for [RANDOMIZE ORDER “the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence”, “the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris”, “the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen”, “the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker”] the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen, the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Measurement of Party ID for this figure is based on two questions. First, respondents were asked whether they consider themselves to be a Democrats, Republicans, independents, other, or not sure. Those who responded that they are independents or "other" were then asked if they lean toward either the Democrats or Republicans. If they indicated that they lean toward one party or the other, they are considered Democrats or Republicans for the purposes of this figure. Only "pure" independents or members of a third party who indicate that they have no preference for Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are considered independents. Respondents who answered that they are "not sure" for either of the two aforementioned questions are not incorporated into this figure.
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CategoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Donald Trump and Mike Pence2%37%92%
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris96%45%6%
Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy "Spike" Cohen1%5%1%
Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker2%6%2%
Someone else0%7%0%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2020 general election for U.S. president were held today, would you vote for [RANDOMIZE ORDER “the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence”, “the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris”, “the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen”, “the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker”] the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen, the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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CategoryLean DemocratNot very strong DemocratStrong Democrat
Donald Trump and Mike Pence2%9%0%
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris94%90%98%
Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy "Spike" Cohen0%0%1%
Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker4%1%1%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2020 general election for U.S. president were held today, would you vote for [RANDOMIZE ORDER “the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence”, “the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris”, “the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen”, “the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker”] the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen, the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Party identification is calculated according to the PID7 variable, a seven point scale of party identification.
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CategoryLean RepublicanNot very strong RepublicanStrong Republican
Donald Trump and Mike Pence86%91%95%
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris11%7%3%
Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy "Spike" Cohen3%1%0%
Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker0%1%3%
Someone else0%1%0%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2020 general election for U.S. president were held today, would you vote for [RANDOMIZE ORDER “the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence”, “the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris”, “the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen”, “the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker”] the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen, the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLiberalsModeratesConservatives
Donald Trump and Mike Pence3%31%86%
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris93%62%9%
Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy "Spike" Cohen2%2%2%
Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker2%3%2%
Someone else0%2%1%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2020 general election for U.S. president were held today, would you vote for [RANDOMIZE ORDER “the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence”, “the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris”, “the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen”, “the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker”] the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen, the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLean liberalSomewhat liberalExtremely liberal
Donald Trump and Mike Pence1%1%9%
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris95%96%88%
Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy "Spike" Cohen3%0%2%
Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker1%3%1%
Someone else0%0%0%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2020 general election for U.S. president were held today, would you vote for [RANDOMIZE ORDER “the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence”, “the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris”, “the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen”, “the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker”] the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen, the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Ideology is measured on a scale of 1-7, with 1 corresponding to "extremely liberal", 7 corresponding to "extremely conservative, and 4 corresponding to "in the middle." For the purposes of this table, respondents who placed themselves at or between points 1 and 3 on the scale are considered "liberal," respondents who placed themselves at point 4 on the scale are considered "moderate," and respondents who placed themselves at or between points 5 and 7 on the scale are considered conservative.
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CategoryLean conservativeSomewhat conservativeExtremely conservative
Donald Trump and Mike Pence74%88%89%
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris21%5%9%
Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy "Spike" Cohen4%3%0%
Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker0%3%2%
Someone else1%0%0%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2020 general election for U.S. president were held today, would you vote for [RANDOMIZE ORDER “the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence”, “the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris”, “the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen”, “the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker”] the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen, the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Race is calculated according to the race variable.
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CategoryWhiteBlackHispanic
Donald Trump and Mike Pence62%11%37%
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris34%87%54%
Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy "Spike" Cohen2%1%0%
Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker1%1%6%
Someone else0%0%2%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2020 general election for U.S. president were held today, would you vote for [RANDOMIZE ORDER “the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence”, “the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris”, “the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen”, “the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker”] the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen, the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Gender is calculated according to the GENDER variable.
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CategoryMaleFemale
Donald Trump and Mike Pence55%46%
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris39%51%
Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy "Spike" Cohen1%2%
Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker4%0%
Someone else1%1%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2020 general election for U.S. president were held today, would you vote for [RANDOMIZE ORDER “the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence”, “the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris”, “the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen”, “the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker”] the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen, the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Community type is based on the following question, " Would you say that you live in an urban, suburban, or rural community?"
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CategoryUrbanSuburbanRural
Donald Trump and Mike Pence35%52%68%
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris59%44%27%
Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy "Spike" Cohen1%1%3%
Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker3%2%0%
Someone else1%0%2%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2020 general election for U.S. president were held today, would you vote for [RANDOMIZE ORDER “the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence”, “the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris”, “the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen”, “the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker”] the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen, the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Age is calculated according to the AGEG variable.
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Category18-2930-4445-6465+
Donald Trump and Mike Pence31%41%57%61%
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris57%51%41%39%
Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy "Spike" Cohen3%5%1%0%
Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker9%2%1%0%
Someone else0%2%1%0%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2020 general election for U.S. president were held today, would you vote for [RANDOMIZE ORDER “the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence”, “the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris”, “the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen”, “the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker”] the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen, the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Education is calculated according to the EDUC variable.
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CategoryNo HSHigh school graduateSome college2-year4-yearPost-grad
Donald Trump and Mike Pence23%52%52%52%50%49%
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris77%44%44%42%45%47%
Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy "Spike" Cohen0%0%2%4%2%2%
Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker0%2%2%1%3%1%
Someone else0%1%1%1%1%0%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2020 general election for U.S. president were held today, would you vote for [RANDOMIZE ORDER “the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence”, “the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris”, “the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen”, “the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker”] the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen, the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Religiosity is calculated according to the IMPORT variable.
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CategoryExtremely importantSomewhat importantNot very importantNot at all important
Donald Trump and Mike Pence67%44%32%23%
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris29%49%66%72%
Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy "Spike" Cohen2%2%0%0%
Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker1%3%2%3%
Someone else1%1%0%1%
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    Respondents were asked, "If the 2020 general election for U.S. president were held today, would you vote for [RANDOMIZE ORDER “the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence”, “the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris”, “the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen”, “the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker”] the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the Libertarian ticket of Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy “Spike” Cohen, the Green ticket of Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker, or haven’t you thought enough about it to have an opinion?" Fundamentalism is calculated according to the LITERAL variable.
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CategoryThe Bible is the actual word of God and is to be taken literally, word for word.The Bible is the word of God but not everything in it should be taken literally, word for word.The Bible is a book written by men and is not the word of God.Don't know.
Donald Trump and Mike Pence71%53%20%22%
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris24%42%77%69%
Jo Jorgensen and Jeremy "Spike" Cohen2%2%0%1%
Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker2%1%2%8%
Someone else1%0%1%0%

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