Jim Henson

Paxton and Trump: One of these is not like the other

September 15, 2023
By: 
Jim Henson
Joshua Blank

Donald Trump’s sudden reiteration of his fervent support for suspended Attorney General Ken Paxton during the 11th hour of his impeachment trial in the Texas Senate (delivered, of course, via social media) reminds anyone paying attention of their entangled trajectories. But with Paxton facing his potential moment of comeuppance in the Texas Senate, it also invites attention to Paxton’s significantly weaker position among Republican voters when compared to the seemingly limitless durability of Trump’s appeal among Texas Republicans.

Latest UT/Texas Politics Project Poll finds Texas Republicans’ support for Donald Trump unwavering amidst multiple indictments

September 8, 2023
By: 
Jim Henson
Joshua Blank

As the 2024 race for the Republican nomination begins to take shape, the August 2023 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll finds Texas Republicans’ continued support for former president Donald Trump evident in several results ranging from general assessments to attitudes toward the criminal indictments against him, the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election, and beliefs about the January 6 storming of the U.S. Capitol led by supporters of the former president.

The poll also contained questions about attitudes in major issues on the public agenda in Texas, including public education, immigration and border policy, business engagement of public policy issues, and expectations about property tax rates. It also asked about Texans’ perceptions of discrimination in the U.S., their attention to major issues recently in the news media, and their assessment of various sources of potential threats to the United States. Selected results are presented below – more detailed discussion of results will follow in the coming weeks.

 

A closer look at the public opinion context for Ken Paxton’s trial in the Texas Senate

September 4, 2023
By: 
Jim Henson

Suspended Attorney General Ken Paxton’s trial in the Texas Senate is finally upon us. We worked to make data related to Paxton and the trial available before the weekend, which didn’t leave much time or space for analysis. As the trial begins, here are some observations about the poll results that incorporate more detail from the data, and more context for the politics of the historic events that will unfold this week on the floor of the Texas Senate.

The main points:

– Skepticism about Paxton’s impeachment and trial remains more evident and more intense among the most conservative Texans – but not decisively so.

– Erosion in public assessments of Paxton is evident in his job approval ratings, including among groups that are relatively more supportive of Him.

– Paxton can count on a comparatively high baseline of Republican belief that the investigations of the suspended attorney general are mostly political as opposed to mostly based on the facts.

– The latest poll results continue to confirm the absence of any public opinion data substantiating the “forgiveness” or “prior term” doctrine Paxton has invoked in his defense. 

– Support for Paxton among his Republican constituents lacks the durability of Republicans' support of Trump.

New UT/Texas Politics Project Poll: Texans' views of Ken Paxton as his trial nears

September 1, 2023
By: 
Jim Henson
Joshua Blank

With suspended Attorney General Ken Paxton's impeachment trial in the Texas Senate set to begin on Tuesday, September 5, a new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll finds that a plurality of Texans, 47%, think Paxton took actions that justify removing him office, while 18% say he did not. Paxton fares slightly better among Republicans, though his partisan base remains divided, with the plurality unsure of whether Paxton should, or should not, be removed from office.  See the post for links to summary doc and a new Second Reading podcast focused on the advance release of results related to the Paxton impeachment and trial.

Is all forgiven? Texas public opinion and the “prior term doctrine” in Ken Paxton's impeachment trial

August 17, 2023
By: 
Jim Henson
Joshua Blank

Setting aside for the moment the logic and legalisms of both the Paxton legal team’s invocation of the prior-term doctrine and the House managers’ response, public opinion polling suggests that relatively small shares of Texas voters have heard “a lot” about Paxton’s legal problems, including in the run-up to the 2022 election. 

As GOP preemption bill steers power to the state, most Texans still express positive views of locals

July 12, 2023
By: 
Jim Henson
Joshua Blank

While stifling the autonomy of state governments has been an ongoing project of the state’s Republican elected officials for several years, the latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll found Texas voters much more positively inclined toward their local government than toward state government.

The (very) early public opinion context for the 2024 US Senate Race in Texas

July 11, 2023
By: 
Jim Henson
Joshua Blank

Texas state senator Roland Gutierrez’s widely-expected announcement that he will join U.S. Congressman Colin Allred in seeking the Democratic nomination to challenge incumbent U.S. Senator Ted Cruz in 2024 sets the stage for a long campaign in what could shape up to be one of the marquee Senate races in the next election.

Public Opinion and Texas Republicans’ Property Tax Problem

June 28, 2023
By: 
Jim Henson
Joshua Blank

June 2023 poll ing suggests that campaign promises by Republicans to cut property taxes, followed by the Republican victors’ failure to deliver in the extended legislative session (so far), has likely exacerbated Texas voters’ dissatisfaction with legislative performance on the issue – and fed their low expectations of ever seeing their property taxes go down.

After a surplus-fueled session, Texans give mixed reviews to legislative policy making

June 22, 2023
By: 
Jim Henson
Joshua Blank

After an active legislative session fueled by a historic budget surplus, the latest University of Texas/Texas Politics project poll finds Texans giving legislative policy efforts mixed reviews amidst complex cross-currents in attitudes about policies, politics, and government.

New University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll finds little confidence in the legislature’s efforts to address key issues

June 22, 2023
By: 
Jim Henson
Joshua Blank

After a regular legislative session that found lawmakers attempting to use a historic budget surplus to address major fiscal issues and infrastructure needs while also pushing some cultural hot buttons, the latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll found Texas voters with low expectations of the impact of their actions, and dim views of the legislature’s responsiveness.

When asked in general terms about their confidence in legislative efforts to address areas deemed critical by voters in Texas Politics Project polling conducted earlier in the session, most Texas voters lacked confidence in lawmakers’ efforts. Fewer than one in five voters was willing to say they were ‘very’ or ‘extremely’ confident that the legislature had increased the reliability of the electric grid or the water supply, improved the safety of Texas’ public schools, or improved security along the Texas-Mexico border.

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