In a new Second Reading Podcast, Jim Henson and Josh Blank take a close look Latino voting patterns in Texas – and what the most common media narratives miss about the subject. The discussion includes extensive discussion of different measures of Latino turnout in Texas across several elections, and using different geographic breakdowns. Below the link to the podcast, listeners will find several tables with data referred to in the discussion.
Listen via Spotify using the player below, or on the web via on LAITS Podcasting page produced by the College of LIberal Arts at the University of Texas at Austin.
| Election Results in Rio Grande Vally Counties (2012-2020) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election | Votes | Percent of Total Votes | Dem Votes | Rep Votes | Dem Advantage (Votes) | Dem Vote Share | Rep Vote Share | Dem Advantage (Percent) |
| 2012 | 232,857 | 2.91% | 161,804 | 68,927 | 92,877 | 69.49% | 29.60% | 39.89 |
| 2014 | 126,996 | 2.69% | 77,444 | 46,423 | 31,021 | 60.98% | 36.55% | 24.43 |
| 2016 | 283,070 | 3.15% | 190,839 | 81,846 | 108,993 | 67.42% | 28.91% | 38.51 |
| 2018* | 244,740 | 2.92% | 164,205 | 79,042 | 85,163 | 67.09% | 32.30% | 34.79 |
| 2020 | 356,121 | 3.21% | 203,319 | 149,420 | 53,899 | 57.09% | 41.96% | 15.14 |
*The 2018 result looks at the competitive contest between Sen. Ted Cruz and Beto O'Rourke, and not the less competitive gubernatorial election between Gov. Greg Abbott and Lupe Valdez.
Source: Texas Legislative Council Comprehensive Election Datasets
| Top of the Ticket Exit Polling Results in Texas Elections | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election | Hispanic Share of the Electorate | Democratic Vote Share | Republican Vote Share | Democratic Advantage |
| 2004 | 20% | 50% | 49% | 1 |
| 2006 | 15% | 41% | 31% | 10 |
| 2008 | 20% | 63% | 35% | 28 |
| 2010 | 17% | 61% | 38% | 23 |
| 2012 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2014 | 17% | 55% | 44% | 10 |
| 2016 | 24% | 61% | 26% | 35 |
| 2018 | 26% | 64% | 35% | 29 |
| 2020 | 23% | 58% | 40% | 18 |
| Overall AVG | 20% | 57% | 37% | 20 |
| Presidential AVG | 22% | 58% | 38% | 20 |
| Midterm AVG | 19% | 55% | 37% | 18 |
| 2016-2020 AVG | 24% | 61% | 34% | 27 |
Source: CNN, NBC, and CBS reporting of exit polling results (links available upon request)
| Estimated Vote Preferences in October UT Election Year Polls | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. Polling | Democratic Vote Share Among Latinos |
Republican Vote Share Among Latinos |
LATINO: D Adv. | Overall Trial Ballot (D-R) |
D-Advantage | Final Results (D-R) | D-Advantage | D-Adv. Error |
| 2012 | 47% | 47% | 0 | 39-54 | -15 | 41-57 | -16 | 1 |
| 2014 | 48% | 46% | 2 | 38-54 | -16 | 39-59 | -20 | 4 |
| 2016 | 56% | 33% | 23 | 42-45 | -3 | 43-52 | -9 | 6 |
| 2018 | 60% | 33% | 27 | 45-51 | -6 | 48-51 | -3 | 3 |
| 2020 | 54% | 37% | 17 | 45-50 | -5 | 46-52 | -6 | 1 |
Source: UT Polling Data archive, https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/polling-data-archive, October polling.
| Latino Vote Shares in Counties with Greater than 50% Latino Adult Population (2012-2020) | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election |
# of Counties |
% of HISP Adults (2019) |
Dem Votes | Share of Total D Votes |
Rep Votes | Share of Total R Votes |
Dem Vote ADV |
Dem Vote Share |
Dem Vote Share |
Rep Vote Share | Rep Vote Share - Statewide Rep Vote Share |
Dem ADV (%) |
% of All Votes Cast |
| 2012 | 59 | 39.02% | 722,497 | 21.84% | 569,837 | 12.47% | 152,660 | 55.24% | 13.84% | 43.56% | -13.62% | 11.68% | 16.37% |
| 2014 | 360,837 | 19.66% | 351,951 | 12.59% | 8,886 | 49.56% | 10.66% | 48.34% | -10.93% | 1.22% | 15.43% | ||
| 2016 | 851,154 | 21.95% | 592,650 | 12.65% | 258,504 | 56.10% | 12.93% | 39.06% | -13.09% | 17.04% | 16.89% | ||
| 2018 | 811,539 | 20.07% | 540,228 | 12.68% | 271,311 | 59.58% | 11.26% | 39.66% | -11.24% | 19.92% | 16.28% | ||
| 2020 | 1,037,192 | 19.73% | 832,174 | 14.13% | 205,018 | 54.72% | 8.26% | 43.90% | -8.14% | 10.82% | 16.75% | ||
Source for electoral data: Texas Legislative Council Comprehensive Election Datasets
Source for demographic data: Texas Demographic Center, 2019 population estimates Age, Sex, and Race/Ethnicity for State and Counties
| Partisan Vote Share in Big 6 and Suburban Counties in Texas, 2012-2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big-6 | Votes Cast | % of Total | R Votes | D Votes | R Vote Adv. | R % | D % | R % Adv | D % Adv |
| 2012 | 3,581,675 | 44.79% | 1,669,725 | 1,856,282 | -186,557 | 46.62% | 51.83% | -5.21% | 5.21% |
| 2016 | 4,014,006 | 44.69% | 1,577,875 | 2,233,039 | -655,164 | 39.31% | 55.63% | -16.32% | 16.32% |
| 2018 | 3,799,698 | 45.40% | 1,436,642 | 2,332,467 | -895,825 | 37.81% | 61.36% | -23.55% | 23.55% |
| 2020 | 4,977,477 | 44.87% | 1,950,698 | 2,948,180 | -997,482 | 39.19% | 59.23% | -20.04% | 20.04% |
| Average | 4,093,214 | 44.94% | 1,658,735 | 2,342,492 | -683,757 | 40.73% | 57.01% | -16.28% | 16.28% |
|
Presidntial Avg
|
4,119,617 | 45.02% | 1,685,688 | 2,378,976 | -693,288 | 41.21% | 57.47% | -16.27% | 16.27% |
| Suburbs | Votes Cast | % of Total | R Votes | D Votes | R Vote Adv. | R % | D % | R % Adv | D % Adv |
| 2012 | 1,930,860 | 24.14% | 1,283,712 | 618,177 | 665,535 | 66.48% | 32.02% | 34.46% | -34.46% |
| 2016 | 2,290,739 | 25.50% | 1,385,939 | 787,242 | 598,697 | 60.50% | 34.37% | 26.13% | -26.13% |
| 2018 | 2,209,303 | 26.40% | 1,287,749 | 903,068 | 384,681 | 58.29% | 40.88% | 17.41% | -17.41% |
| 2020 | 3,052,067 | 27.51% | 1,778,044 | 1,225,063 | 552,981 | 58.26% | 40.14% | 18.12% | -18.12% |
| Average | 2,370,742 | 25.89% | 1,433,861 | 883,388 | 550,474 | 60.88% | 36.85% | 24.03% | -24.03% |
|
Presidntial Avg
|
2,397,410 | 26.02% | 1,449,835 | 915,436 | 534,399 | 61.01% | 37.68% | 23.33% | -23.33% |
Source for electoral data: Texas Legislative Council Comprehensive Election Datasets. The Big-6 counties include El Paso, Bexar, Travis, Harris, Tarrant, and Dallas counties. Suburban counties included Wise, Denton, Collin, Rockwall, Hunt, Kaufman, Ellis, Johnson, Parker, Williamson, Bastrop, Hays, Caldwell, Kendall, Comal, Guadalupe, Wilson, Atascosa, Medina, Bandera, Galveston, Chambers, Liberty, San Jacinto, Montgomery, Waller, Fort Bend, Brazoria, and Austin counties.
About the Second Reading podcast. The podcast has been produced intermittently by Jim Henson for the Texas Politics Project, with production support from the Liberal Arts Development Studio at UT Austin, since 2016. You can find past episodes and subscribe to the Second Reading podcast in Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Stitcher.