Where Hillary Clinton Stands in Texas as the Democratic Convention Begins in Philadelphia

Hillary Clinton made headlines in Texas in May when she told a writer for New York magazine that she would make a play for Texas.  (" 'If black and Latino voters come out and vote, we could win Texas,' she told me firmly, practically licking her lips.") That trial balloon has largely floated out of sight, and there’s been little action and much skepticism on the Texas front since then (other than, of course, fundraising).  (The air has also leaked completely out of the Julian Castro for vice-president trope with the selection of Tim Kaine, though it lasted just long enough to have a tragicomic stifling effect on an already grim state Democratic convention last month.)

Clinton trailed Trump by eight points in the June University of Texas / Texas Politics Project Poll fielded a little over one month ago, prior to Bernie Sanders’ suspension of his campaign and his subsequent endorsement of Secretary Clinton.  It was also, however, prior to this week’s DNC email release suggesting in stark terms just how in-the-tank the Democratic Party organization favored Clinton over Sanders.  In Texas, Sanders supporters weren’t quite ready to Bern for Hillary in early June:  only 40 percent of them said they would vote for her on a trial ballot with Donald Trump, with 44 percent saying they would vote for someone else.  Before embracing the hypothesis that there are a wealth of Trump voters among the Bernie fans, note that only 10 percent of sanders supporters said they would vote for Trump.

But overall, Democrats have a favorable view of Clinton and of the Democratic Party.  There still appears to be too few of them who can be expected to show up to vote on election day -- and as we’ve suggested before, her negatives among non-Democrats in Texas are both high and intense.  Trump may be alienating young voters, especially young Hispanics, but poor turnout rates among these groups meant that any opportunities for Democrats are much more likely to be a down payment on future gains than a sudden jackpot in this presidential election.  Even a simple likely voter screen (a VERY hypothetical exercise at this point that we we indulge in only reluctantly) increases Trump’s lead to double figures.

Nonetheless, as the Democrats convene in Philadelphia, here are some relevant recent Clinton results from Texas.

Hillary Clinton Favorability Ratings

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Very favorable16%
Somewhat favorable13%
Neither favorable nor unfavorable9%
Somewhat unfavorable8%
Very unfavorable51%
Don't know/no opinion3%

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Very favorable38%5%3%
Somewhat favorable29%8%1%
Neither favorable nor unfavorable12%14%4%
Somewhat unfavorable8%8%6%
Very unfavorable11%59%85%
Don't know/no opinion2%6%1%

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Very favorable15%18%
Somewhat favorable12%13%
Neither favorable nor unfavorable7%10%
Somewhat unfavorable6%9%
Very unfavorable56%47%
Don't know/no opinion3%3%


Assessments of Hillary Clinton's Future Performance as President

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Great president11%
Good president15%
Average president16%
Poor president11%
Terrible president46%

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Great president29%1%1%
Good president31%17%2%
Average president25%17%7%
Poor president7%12%15%
Terrible president9%54%75%

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categoryLean DemocratNot very strong DemocratStrong Democrat
Great president12%14%47%
Good president31%23%35%
Average president23%42%13%
Poor president21%5%2%
Terrible president12%15%4%


Reasons for Vote Choice: Want Clinton to Be President or Don’t Want Trump to be Elected?

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I want Hillary Clinton to be elected president57%
I don't want Donald Trump to be elected president43%

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categoryLean DemocratNot very strong DemocratStrong Democrat
I want Hillary Clinton to be elected president38%46%76%
I don't want Donald Trump to be elected president62%54%24%


Reasons for Vote Choice: Want Trump To Be President or Don’t Want Clinton to be Elected?

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I want Donald Trump to be elected president45%
I don't want Hillary Clinton to be elected president55%

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categoryLean RepublicanNot very strong RepublicanStrong Republican
I want Donald Trump to be elected president45%46%41%
I don't want Hillary Clinton to be elected president55%54%59%


Perceptions of Hillary Clinton’s Ideology

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1 - Extremely liberal33%
4 - In the middle20%
7 - Extremely conservative3%
Don't know11%

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1 - Extremely liberal7%38%55%
4 - In the middle38%17%5%
7 - Extremely conservative5%5%1%
Don't know8%13%9%

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1 - Extremely liberal7%16%58%
4 - In the middle34%32%4%
7 - Extremely conservative1%5%2%
Don't know2%22%6%

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categoryLeaning liberalSomewhat liberalExtremely liberal
1 - Extremely liberal12%3%7%
4 - In the middle38%30%37%
7 - Extremely conservative1%2%2%
Don't know3%1%3%


Clinton/Trump Trial Ballot

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Donald Trump41%
Hillary Clinton33%
Someone else19%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion8%

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Donald Trump6%41%73%
Hillary Clinton75%17%3%
Someone else12%32%19%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion7%10%5%

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Donald Trump45%37%
Hillary Clinton31%34%
Someone else17%20%
Haven't thought about it enough to have an opinion7%9%