Blog
Job approval trends for Texas statewide incumbents and other trend data from the Texas Politics Project poll data archive (October 2021 UT/Texas Politics Project Poll update)
This page compiles graphics for trends in job approval ratings of the current statewide incumbents (Governor, Lt. Governor, U.S. Senators) that Texans rate on every poll . Bookmark the page for easy reference – we’ve also added similar graphics for trends in Texans’ assessment of conditions in Texas and the U.S., and some archival results for comparison with leaders no longer in office.
Second Reading Podcast: Data points to close out 2022 – and look toward 2023
In the last Second Reading podcast of 2022, Jim Henson and Josh Blank look at several data points from Texas Politics Project polling to wrap up 2022 and anticipate dynamics in Texas politics in 2023. For a taste of what's in the podcast, see the links below the player.
Some Notes on the Political Geography of the 2022 Election in Texas
A look at the geography beneath the status-quo-preserving results of the 2022 Texas election reveal gradual patterns of change that both confirm and confound the received knowledge about the state’s most recent elections and the longer-run trajectory of the state. Looking at the distribution of the vote between the two major parties from among urban, suburban, and rural counties* reveals patterns that are more subtle than the Republican tromping of Democrats in statewide and legislative races might initially suggest.
Second Reading Podcast: Beneath the latest Republican sweep in Texas
Second Reading Podcast: A look at early voting and other other tea leaves in the final week of the 2022 election
Texas 2022 Gubernatorial Poll Tracker
November 2: Updated with University of Houston/Hobby School poll, which found Abbott leading O'Rourke 53%-40% among likely voters.
Making sense of electoral politics in Texas as the 2022 election reaches its crescendo
For all the upheaval in the state over the last two years – month after month of screaming and fighting over COVID measures (amidst tens of thousands of COVID-related deaths), persistent threats to democratic institutions that broke into open violence on January 6 and have simmered ever since, the power outage that killed hundreds and brought discomfort and suffering to millions in Texas, the mass killing of children at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, the overturning of Roe v Wade and the resulting deterioration of health care and autonomy for millions of Texas women – the Texas electorate as likely constituted seem poised to vote for continuity rather than change. This situation is the result of long-standing, and only slowly changing, characteristics of the Texas political system being reinforced by a strong national dynamic favoring Republicans.
Contextualizing (and Tracking) the Early Vote in Texas
As Election Day approaches, many are watching early voting patterns for indications of total turnout and signs of partisan advantages (or disadvantage). However, intepreting the 2022 early vote is tricky, and interpretation of patterns requires keeping several factors in mind. Many of the most obvious comparisons being made in efforts to find leading indicators of election outcomes are more complicated than they appear. Some of these complications arise from the data collection and reporting by the secretary of state. Others considerations arise from well established differences between mid-term and presidential election years, and from the unique circumstances of both the 2018 and 2022 elections.
Second Reading Podcast: A look at results of the October 2022 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll
With Texans focused on the border and the economy, Abbott leads O’Rourke 54%-43% among likely voters in new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll
With in-person early voting set to begin in Texas on October 24, the latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll finds Gov. Greg Abbott leading Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke in the gubernatorial race, 54%-43%, among Texans likely to vote in the 2022 election. While more than half of Republican voters say immigration and border security is the most important issue area informing their vote, Democratic voters’ attention is divided among a list of several issues, topped by abortion.