Donald Trump will give his first official State of the Union Address tonight at 8 PM central time (his first speech to Congress upon being elected in 2017 isn't technically a State of the Union Address). Here are five quick observations about Donald Trump's standing in Texas to provide some context for tonight's address – to wit, he has been consistently popular among Texas Republicans, just as consistently intensely unpopular among Texas Democrats, and remains in better standing with his GOP base in Texas than the collective members of Congress he'll be addressing tonight.
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1. Donald Trump is very popular among Texas Republicans. The president's approval rating among Republicans sits at 78 percent as recently as October of 2017, essentially unchanged from June of last year, when his approval rating among Republicans was 80 percent.
| category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 3% | 31% | 47% |
| Approve somewhat | 2% | 24% | 31% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 3% | 9% | 6% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 8% | 10% | 7% |
| Disapprove strongly | 84% | 25% | 8% |
| Don't know | 1% | 1% | 1% |
2. Texas Democrats strongly disapprove of the President's job performance – but not remarkably. The results above also show that 84 percent of Texas Democrats strongly disapprove of President Trump's job performance so far, with 92 percent disapproving overall. While there have been some grumblings that Democratic disapproval of the President is the result of partisan hysteria on the left, evidence contradicts this assertion. In October of 2009, 89 percent of Texas Republicans disapproved of President Obama's job performance, with 80 percent disapproving strongly.
3. Attitudes towards Trump have been incredibly consistent since he took office. For those who follow politics closely, it's easy to feel like the first year of the Trump Presidency has packed in more noteworthy events than either of the previous two occupants' eight years in office, but so far Texans' attitudes toward the president have remained remarkably consistent over his first year.
| category | Approve | Disapprove | Neither/Don't know |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 2017 | 46% | 44% | 11% |
| June 2017 | 43% | 51% | 7% |
| October 2017 | 45% | 50% | 6% |
| February 2018 | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| June 2018 | 47% | 44% | 8% |
| October 2018 | 48% | 45% | 6% |
| February 2019 | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| June 2019 | 52% | 44% | 5% |
| October 2019 | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| February 2020 | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| April 2020 | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| June 2020 | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| October 2020 | 49% | 46% | 4% |
| Poll | Approve | Disapprove | Neither/Don't know |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 2017 | 81% | 10% | 8% |
| June 2017 | 80% | 13% | 7% |
| October 2017 | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| February 2018 | 83% | 11% | 5% |
| June 2018 | 87% | 7% | 6% |
| October 2018 | 88% | 7% | 4% |
| February 2019 | 88% | 8% | 5% |
| June 2019 | 88% | 8% | 5% |
| October 2019 | 88% | 8% | 5% |
| February 2020 | 87% | 9% | 4% |
| April 2020 | 90% | 7% | 3% |
| June 2020 | 86% | 8% | 6% |
| October 2020 | 90% | 8% | 2% |
| Poll | Approve | Disapprove | Neither/Don't know |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 2017 | 8% | 83% | 10% |
| June 2017 | 5% | 90% | 5% |
| October 2017 | 5% | 92% | 4% |
| February 2018 | 8% | 85% | 8% |
| June 2018 | 8% | 84% | 9% |
| October 2018 | 6% | 91% | 4% |
| February 2019 | 7% | 88% | 5% |
| June 2019 | 11% | 86% | 4% |
| October 2019 | 6% | 90% | 4% |
| February 2020 | 5% | 89% | 6% |
| April 2020 | 7% | 86% | 6% |
| June 2020 | 5% | 93% | 2% |
| October 2020 | 7% | 89% | 4% |
4. Texas Republicans are much more pleased with Donald Trump's handling of the Republican Congress than Congress appears to be. Overall, evaluations of the President's handling of relations with the Congress is low, with 46 percent disapproving and 33 percent approving, but it's hard to determine exactly what Democratic disapproval means (i.e. would they like him to work better with the Congress, or do they simply disapprove of everything he does?). Among Republicans, however, 57 percent approve of the way that Trump is handling the Congress, compared to only 18 percent who disapprove. GOP views are likely a function of dim views among GOP voters, despite Republican majorities in both chambers. To wit...
| category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 3% | 23% | 26% |
| Approve somewhat | 1% | 13% | 31% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 9% | 22% | 19% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 20% | 12% | 10% |
| Disapprove strongly | 63% | 19% | 8% |
| Don't know | 4% | 10% | 6% |
5. The Congress, President Trump's in-house audience for tonight's speech, is viewed incredibly negatively (and is also far less trusted than the President himself among Texas Republicans). The studio audience for tonight's event sits in a continual state of disesteem, with only 12 percent of Texans approving and 69 percent disapproving. Interestingly, Republican views of the Republican Congress don't fair much better, with 16 percent expressing approval and 44 percent expressing disapproval. Finally, when asked which branch of the federal government they trust most, Republicans overwhelming chose the President (47 percent), with a mere 3 percent choosing the Congress. Ouch!
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 2% |
| Approve somewhat | 10% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 15% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 24% |
| Disapprove strongly | 45% |
| Don't know | 3% |
| category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 2% | 0% | 1% |
| Approve somewhat | 6% | 9% | 15% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 13% | 17% | 17% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 24% | 19% | 25% |
| Disapprove strongly | 51% | 51% | 39% |
| Don't know | 4% | 4% | 2% |
[[nid:23942 exclude=Democrat,Independent]]