President Donald Trump returns to Texas today to, per the Texas Tribune’s Alex Samuels, “participate in a roundtable discussion...with faith leaders, law enforcement officials and small-business owners to discuss race relations and policing” at the Dallas Campus of the Gateway Church. The man at the top of the GOP ticket in November will then reportedly preside over a high-ticket fundraiser for the Trump Victory Fund with a fundraising goal of $10 million, according to reporting by Todd Gillman and Gromer Jeffers, Jr., in a thorough table setter for the visit in the Dallas Morning News.
Recent polls showing a close contest between Trump and former vice president Joe Biden in Texas have been getting a lot of play, including in the Gillman/Jeffers piece. While there’s little doubt that the parties are getting more competitive in Texas, there’s also little doubt that early summer polling is a poor predictor of the final outcome. There will be lots of time to mull this as polling accumulates here. For now, we’ve gathered University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll results that illustrate Trump’s standing in Texas, with particular attention to cross tabs for subgroups that add dimension to the overall numbers. (For those who want to dig still deeper, there are 132 items tagged with Donald Trump's name in our poll archive.)
Generic Trump re-elect
Not surprisingly, most polling has shown the president with leads in Texas, though those leads have remained rather narrow. In polling conducted this year, the average lead for Trump over Biden has been 2.4 percentage points — remarkably similar to Ted Cruz’s 2.6-point victory over Beto O’Rourke in 2018.
| Poll | Field Dates | Sample Size | Sample Composition | MOE | Trump | Biden | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac | 5/28-6/1 | 1,166 | Registered Voters | +/-2.9% | 44% | 43% | R +1 |
| Emerson | 5/8-5/10 | 800 | Registered Voters | +/-3.4% | 47% | 41% | R +6 |
| PPP | 4/27-4/28 | 1,032 | Registered Voters | N/A | 46% | 47% | D +1 |
| Dallas Morning News | 4/18-4/27 | 1,183 | Registered Voters | +/-2.9% | 43% | 43% | Tie |
| UT/Texas Tribune | 4/10-4/19 | 1,200 | Registered Voters | +/-2.8% | 49% | 44% | R +5 |
| NBC/Marist | 2/23-2/27 | 2,409 | Registered Voters | +/-2.5% | 49% | 45% | R +4 |
| CNN | 2/22-2/26 | 1,003 | Registered Voters | +/-3.0% | 47% | 48% | D +1 |
| Dallas Morning News | 2/17-2/26 | 1,221 | Registered Voters | +/-2.8% | 45% | 44% | R +1 |
| UT/Texas Tribune | 1/31-2/9 | 1,200 | Registered Voters | +/-2.8% | 47% | 43% | R +4 |
| Dallas Morning News | 1/21-1/30 | 915 | Likely Voters | +/-3.2% | 46% | 44% | R +2 |
| Texas Lyceum | 1/10-1/19 | 520 | Likely Voters | +/-4.3% | 51% | 46% | R +5 |
| CNN | 12/4-12/8 | 1,003 | Registered Voters | +/-3.7% | 48% | 47% | R +1 |
| UT/Texas Tribune | 10/18-10/27 | 1,200 | Registered Voters | +/-2.8% | 46% | 39% | R +7 |
| Dallas Morning News | 8/1-8/3 | 1,033 | Registered Voters | +/-3.0% | 49% | 51% | D +2 |
| Quinnipiac | 5/29-6/4 | 1,159 | Registered Voters | +/-3.4% | 44% | 48% | D +4 |
| Emerson | 4/25-4/28 | 799 | Registered Voters | +/-3.4% | 49% | 50% | D +1 |
| Quinnipiac | 2/20-2/25 | 1,222 | Registered Voters | +/-3.4% | 47% | 46% | R +1 |
Generic Trump re-elect
While the Democratic Party was settling on a candidate, the UT/TT Poll included a question that probed support for Trump in the absence of a named opponent. Such a question allows respondents to idealize the unnamed opponent and so likely understates support for the incumbent. Looking at results by party identification suggests a problem that has been much-noticed nationally of late: Trump seems to be struggling with independents.
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Definitely vote to re-elect Donald Trump | 3% | 27% | 81% |
| Probably vote to re-elect Donald Trump | 3% | 12% | 11% |
| Probably vote for someone else | 9% | 17% | 1% |
| Definitely vote for someone else | 85% | 44% | 6% |
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Definitely vote to re-elect Donald Trump | 42% |
| Probably vote to re-elect Donald Trump | 8% |
| Probably vote for someone else | 7% |
| Definitely vote for someone else | 42% |
Overall job approval trend
The president’s job approval has fluctuated in a narrow band in Texas throughout his presidency.
| category | Approve | Disapprove | Neither/Don't know |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 2017 | 46% | 44% | 11% |
| June 2017 | 43% | 51% | 7% |
| October 2017 | 45% | 50% | 6% |
| February 2018 | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| June 2018 | 47% | 44% | 8% |
| October 2018 | 48% | 45% | 6% |
| February 2019 | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| June 2019 | 52% | 44% | 5% |
| October 2019 | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| February 2020 | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| April 2020 | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| June 2020 | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| October 2020 | 49% | 46% | 4% |
Trump’s approval ratings have largely been fixed by steadfast approval among Republicans and even more intense disapproval among Democrats.
| Poll | Approve | Disapprove | Neither/Don't know |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 2017 | 81% | 10% | 8% |
| June 2017 | 80% | 13% | 7% |
| October 2017 | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| February 2018 | 83% | 11% | 5% |
| June 2018 | 87% | 7% | 6% |
| October 2018 | 88% | 7% | 4% |
| February 2019 | 88% | 8% | 5% |
| June 2019 | 88% | 8% | 5% |
| October 2019 | 88% | 8% | 5% |
| February 2020 | 87% | 9% | 4% |
| April 2020 | 90% | 7% | 3% |
| June 2020 | 86% | 8% | 6% |
| October 2020 | 90% | 8% | 2% |
| Poll | Approve | Disapprove | Neither/Don't know |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 2017 | 8% | 83% | 10% |
| June 2017 | 5% | 90% | 5% |
| October 2017 | 5% | 92% | 4% |
| February 2018 | 8% | 85% | 8% |
| June 2018 | 8% | 84% | 9% |
| October 2018 | 6% | 91% | 4% |
| February 2019 | 7% | 88% | 5% |
| June 2019 | 11% | 86% | 4% |
| October 2019 | 6% | 90% | 4% |
| February 2020 | 5% | 89% | 6% |
| April 2020 | 7% | 86% | 6% |
| June 2020 | 5% | 93% | 2% |
| October 2020 | 7% | 89% | 4% |
Recent slippage among independents, however, is also evident in these results.
| Poll | Approve | Disapprove | Neither/Don't know |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 2017 | 39% | 37% | 24% |
| June 2017 | 47% | 41% | 11% |
| October 2017 | 55% | 35% | 10% |
| February 2018 | 49% | 37% | 13% |
| June 2018 | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| October 2018 | 39% | 43% | 17% |
| February 2019 | 46% | 37% | 17% |
| June 2019 | 46% | 39% | 15% |
| October 2019 | 41% | 51% | 8% |
| February 2020 | 36% | 47% | 17% |
| April 2020 | 34% | 47% | 18% |
| June 2020 | 36% | 50% | 14% |
| October 2020 | 31% | 53% | 15% |
Approval of handling of the economy
Partisanship also drives assessments of how the president is handling the economy, though Democrats’ disapproval is slightly less intense than their overall disapproval.
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 2% | 23% | 72% |
| Approve somewhat | 6% | 10% | 17% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 8% | 17% | 4% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 16% | 12% | 2% |
| Disapprove strongly | 66% | 33% | 5% |
| Don't know | 1% | 7% | 1% |
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 37% |
| Approve somewhat | 12% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 8% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 9% |
| Disapprove strongly | 33% |
| Don't know | 1% |
Approval: handing of the response to the coronavirus/COVID019
Not much difference in partisan assessments of the president here, either, though Republican support is less strong than their approval of his handling of the economy or his overall rating (i.e. looking at the distribution of “approve strongly” and “approve somewhat”). Note that these results were from mid-April, when most major cities in the state were already under some form of stay-at-home order.
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 3% | 22% | 62% |
| Approve somewhat | 7% | 13% | 24% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 5% | 10% | 5% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 10% | 6% | 3% |
| Disapprove strongly | 74% | 45% | 5% |
| Don't know | 1% | 4% | 0% |
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 33% |
| Approve somewhat | 15% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 6% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 7% |
| Disapprove strongly | 38% |
| Don't know | 1% |
Trust in Trump as source of accurate information on the coronavirus/COVID-19
You guessed it: Partisanship carries the day, though with only 29% of independents saying that they trust the information coming from the president.
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trust | 5% | 29% | 82% |
| Don't trust | 89% | 55% | 11% |
| Don't know/Unfamiliar | 5% | 16% | 7% |
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Trust | 44% |
| Don't trust | 49% |
| Don't know/Unfamiliar | 7% |
The item asking about trust in COVID-19 information coming from the president was one of several assessments in the poll. The president was one of five sources evaluated that were trusted by less than half of respondents. The top response was medical and health professionals, followed by the Centers for Disease Control. Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s trust level was 15 percentage points higher than Trump's, largely as a result of being trusted by nearly a third of Democrats, compared to the 5% who said they trusted the president.
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medical and health professionals | 93% | 66% | 87% |
| The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) | 84% | 52% | 63% |
| Your friends and family | 62% | 48% | 69% |
| Greg Abbott | 32% | 35% | 85% |
| Your local elected officials | 58% | 38% | 57% |
| Donald Trump | 5% | 29% | 82% |
| Your employer | 40% | 25% | 45% |
| Religious leaders and clergy | 28% | 16% | 56% |
| The news media | 61% | 20% | 15% |
| Social media and online sources | 22% | 12% | 13% |
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Medical and health professionals | 87% |
| The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) | 70% |
| Your friends and family | 63% |
| Greg Abbott | 58% |
| Your local elected officials | 55% |
| Donald Trump | 44% |
| Your employer | 41% |
| Religious leaders and clergy | 40% |
| The news media | 34% |
| Social media and online sources | 17% |