No one should be surprised that Texas Senators John Cornyn and Ted Cruz voted today to clear the way for Brett Kavanaugh’s ascension to the United States Supreme Court, and will vote in his favor tomorrow when the Senate takes the final vote.
Public opinion data from the University of Texas / Texas Tribune Poll archive illuminates, at least in part, why Senators Cornyn and Cruz could be expected to support Kavanaugh even as the nominee's temperament, his forthrightness with Senate, and serious questions about his past behavior became ever more problematic. A more thorough analysis will require new, more focused data. But in the meantime, the data at hand provide context for why the Texas Senators followed the party line once the responses to the accusations against Kavanaugh intersected with the seemingly ever-escalating partisan environment. From perceptions of discrimination to the #metoo movement to attitudes toward the court, the attitudinal landscape in Texas is marked by deeply opposed, partisan frames of references for some of the fundamental questions raised by Kavanaugh's testimony, and by his and his defenders' responses to the objections raised to his confirmation.
Joshua Blank and I posted some of this data in the run up to Kavanaugh’s testimony before the judiciary committee, too. This post re-presents some slightly different slices of the data, with a some new items added as well.
Texans’ perceptions of discrimination experienced by men and women.
| category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| A lot of discrimination | 2% | 13% | 19% |
| Some | 10% | 30% | 28% |
| Not very much | 36% | 24% | 31% |
| None at all | 48% | 26% | 19% |
| Don't know/no opinion | 4% | 7% | 3% |
| category | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| A lot of discrimination | 16% | 7% |
| Some | 27% | 15% |
| Not very much | 30% | 35% |
| None at all | 26% | 38% |
| Don't know/no opinion | 2% | 6% |
| category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| A great deal | 31% | 14% | 3% |
| A lot | 31% | 20% | 9% |
| A moderate amount | 28% | 20% | 21% |
| A little | 7% | 28% | 49% |
| None at all | 3% | 19% | 18% |
| category | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| A great deal | 12% | 20% |
| A lot | 14% | 24% |
| A moderate amount | 22% | 26% |
| A little | 35% | 21% |
| None at all | 17% | 8% |
More specifically, beliefs that attention to sexual assault have have led to the unfair treatment of men.
| category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strongly agree | 9% | 19% | 20% |
| Somewhat agree | 14% | 42% | 41% |
| Somewhat disagree | 25% | 10% | 18% |
| Strongly disagree | 43% | 14% | 14% |
| Don't know/No opinion | 9% | 16% | 8% |
| category | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Strongly agree | 22% | 9% |
| Somewhat agree | 34% | 24% |
| Somewhat disagree | 20% | 21% |
| Strongly disagree | 19% | 33% |
| Don't know/No opinion | 6% | 12% |
Views of the #metoo movement as it became prominent (February 2018).
| category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very favorable | 39% | 13% | 6% |
| Somewhat favorable | 27% | 5% | 10% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 16% | 30% | 19% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 6% | 17% | 22% |
| Very unfavorable | 1% | 15% | 29% |
| Don't know/no opinion | 10% | 20% | 14% |
| category | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Very favorable | 18% | 23% |
| Somewhat favorable | 16% | 18% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 18% | 20% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 18% | 12% |
| Very unfavorable | 19% | 12% |
| Don't know/no opinion | 10% | 16% |
The importance of Supreme Court appointments to Republican partisans and Trump voters.
| category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| The economy | 19% | 21% | 14% |
| Immigration | 5% | 9% | 15% |
| Foreign policy | 3% | 4% | 3% |
| Terrorism | 7% | 4% | 13% |
| Health care | 11% | 5% | 4% |
| Education | 6% | 3% | 0% |
| Race relations | 5% | 0% | 1% |
| The criminal justice system | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| Gun policy | 5% | 7% | 1% |
| Police-community relations | 6% | 2% | 0% |
| Nominating Justices to the Supreme Court | 19% | 18% | 33% |
| Trade with other countries | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| National security | 4% | 15% | 12% |
| Other | 6% | 11% | 3% |
| category | Not supporting Donald Trump | Supporting Donald Trump |
|---|---|---|
| The economy | 19% | 14% |
| Immigration | 5% | 17% |
| Foreign policy | 5% | 2% |
| Terrorism | 8% | 10% |
| Health care | 10% | 4% |
| Education | 6% | 0% |
| Race relations | 4% | 1% |
| The criminal justice system | 2% | 0% |
| Gun policy | 4% | 2% |
| Police-community relations | 5% | 0% |
| Nominating Justices to the Supreme Court | 16% | 35% |
| Trade with other countries | 3% | 0% |
| National security | 6% | 12% |
| Other | 7% | 3% |
| category | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| The economy | 20% | 14% |
| Immigration | 10% | 11% |
| Foreign policy | 5% | 2% |
| Terrorism | 7% | 11% |
| Health care | 5% | 9% |
| Education | 3% | 3% |
| Race relations | 2% | 4% |
| The criminal justice system | 1% | 1% |
| Gun policy | 3% | 3% |
| Police-community relations | 5% | 1% |
| Nominating Justices to the Supreme Court | 26% | 24% |
| Trade with other countries | 2% | 1% |
| National security | 6% | 11% |
| Other | 6% | 4% |
Views of the FBI.
| category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very favorable | 26% | 9% | 7% |
| Somewhat favorable | 36% | 18% | 19% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 20% | 24% | 23% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 6% | 13% | 27% |
| Very unfavorable | 5% | 17% | 18% |
| Don't know/no opinion | 7% | 19% | 6% |
| category | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Very favorable | 14% | 16% |
| Somewhat favorable | 26% | 25% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 20% | 24% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 19% | 14% |
| Very unfavorable | 17% | 9% |
| Don't know/no opinion | 3% | 11% |
John Cornyn’s job approval ratings.
| category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 3% | 8% | 14% |
| Approve somewhat | 6% | 17% | 32% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 17% | 21% | 24% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 18% | 10% | 12% |
| Disapprove strongly | 44% | 28% | 6% |
| Don't know | 12% | 17% | 11% |
| category | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 11% | 6% |
| Approve somewhat | 20% | 18% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 20% | 23% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 18% | 11% |
| Disapprove strongly | 25% | 23% |
| Don't know | 6% | 18% |
Ted Cruz’s job approval ratings.
| category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 2% | 10% | 42% |
| Approve somewhat | 7% | 7% | 32% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 10% | 24% | 11% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 9% | 12% | 6% |
| Disapprove strongly | 65% | 31% | 3% |
| Don't know | 6% | 15% | 7% |
| category | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 28% | 16% |
| Approve somewhat | 19% | 17% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 10% | 15% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 8% | 8% |
| Disapprove strongly | 31% | 34% |
| Don't know | 4% | 10% |
Donald Trump’s job approval ratings.
| category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 3% | 25% | 55% |
| Approve somewhat | 5% | 18% | 32% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 8% | 10% | 5% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 9% | 6% | 3% |
| Disapprove strongly | 75% | 39% | 4% |
| Don't know | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| category | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Approve strongly | 36% | 23% |
| Approve somewhat | 18% | 19% |
| Neither approve nor disapprove | 8% | 7% |
| Disapprove somewhat | 4% | 8% |
| Disapprove strongly | 34% | 42% |
| Don't know | 0% | 1% |