With voting about to start in Texas, Trump and Cruz maintain single-digit leads in new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll

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With early voting about to kick off in Texas, the latest 2024 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll finds former president Donald Trump leading Vice-President Kamala Harris 51% to 46% among likely voters in the presidential race in Texas. Green Party candidate Jill Stein was the choice of 2%, while Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver received 1%. 

In a race that has increasingly gained national attention in the fight for control of the U.S. Senate, incumbent Republican Ted Cruz holds a 7-point lead among likely voters over his Democratic challenger, Congressman Colin Allred, 51% to 44%, with Libertarian Ted Brown the choice of 4%.

The totals in both of the marquee 2024 races in Texas reflect the combined preferences of those who expressed a preference when asked whom they would vote for, and undecided, but likely, voters who were prodded to make a choice in a follow-up question.

Most Texas voters have settled on their choice for president and say they are unlikely to change their minds, leaving relatively few persuadable voters for the campaigns to focus their efforts on during the final weeks of the campaign. Among likely voters, nearly 4 out of five (79%) say they are “not at all likely” to change their minds before they vote, with another 9% “not very likely” to shift their choice. Only 3% say they are “very likely” to change their minds, with 6% “somewhat likely.” Slightly more Trump supporters say they are “not all likely” to change their minds (83%) compared to Harris voters (79%). Among the small group of voters supporting third party candidates in the presidential race, nearly a third (32%) say they are somewhat likely (28%) or very likely (4%) to change their minds before casting their votes.

The poll was conducted October 2-10 among 1200 registered voters, from which a subset of 1091 likely voters was drawn. Likely voters are defined as those who selected 9 or 10 when asked to “rate how likely you are to vote in the upcoming November elections” on a scale of 0-10, or stated that they vote in "Every" or "Almost every" election in response to another question about their voting history, providing for indications of both past voting behavior and current intentions to vote. The full sample of 1200 registered voters has a margin of error of +/- 2.83%, while the pool of 1,091 likely voters has a margin of error of +/- 2.97%. (See the final pages of the poll summary document for detailed methodological information.) 

The poll found rough parity in enthusiasm about the elections among partisans, with Democrats holding a slight, statistically marginal advantage. Among registered voters, 50% of Democrats say that they are “extremely enthusiastic” about voting in the 2024 election, with another 27% saying they are “very enthusiastic,” while 47% of Republicans said they are “extremely enthusiastic” with another 25% “very enthusiastic. As the election campaign enters its final stages, enthusiasm has declined slightly in both parties since the last UT/Texas Politics Project Poll in August.

The economy and rising prices, along with immigration and border security, remain the top issues voters say are driving their votes this election, followed at some distance by concerns about democracy along with abortion and women’s rights. Asked in an open-ended question “what one issue is the most important to your vote in the 2024 presidential election,” the most frequent responses among likely voters included the economy, mentioned by 18%, and inflation and the cost of living (11%), though both of these issues were cited by smaller shares than in the August poll. These were followed by immigration or border security (16%), abortion or women’s rights (7%), and democracy (7%). (See the summary document for the poll for a more complete list of issues mentioned in the open-ended item.)

A Closer Look at the Presidential Race in Texas

The October poll explored Texas voters’ views of the presidential candidates along several dimensions, including who they trust more to handle key issues, their traits, their political ideologies, and other aspects of the ongoing campaign.

Trust in candidates on major issues

Asked to evaluate who they trust on a selection of issues, likely voters in Texas expressed more trust in Trump than in Harris to handle 7 out of the 11 issues included.

Likely voters expressed more trust in Trump to handle the issues that have regularly topped the “most important problems facing the state” items over the last two years of polling, including the current poll. Voters express more trust in Trump than Harris on the economy (51% v. 40%), inflation and prices (50% v. 39%), and immigration and border security (55% v. 36%, Harris’s lowest issue trust rating). Trump also led on crime and public safety (50% v. 41%), foreign policy (49% v. 40%), infrastructure (47% v. 40%), and taxes (48% v. 41%).

Voters trust Harris more by the widest margin on abortion access (54% v. 28%, Trump’s lowest trust rating), climate change (46% v. 29%), health care (47% v. 42%), and gun violence (43% v. 42%).

None of these evaluations differ appreciably from when the question was last asked in August polling.

Favorability ratings

Among likely voters, Trump is viewed favorably by 48% and unfavorably by 47%. Harris is viewed favorably by 43% and unfavorably by 50%.

Both candidates have locked down most of their partisans, though Harris is slightly more secure among Democrats than Trump is among Republicans. Trump is viewed favorably by 87% of likely Republican voters and unfavorably by 9%, while Harris is viewed favorably by 92% of likely Democratic voters and unfavorably by only 4%.

Among “true” independents (partisan leaners, as always in UT/TxPP polling, are included in partisan totals), both candidates are underwater. Harris is viewed favorably by 30% and unfavorably by 54% (net -24%), while Trump is viewed favorably by 24% and unfavorably by 64% (net -40).

The poll revealed little change in the presidential candidates’ favorability ratings among registered voters since the August UT/TxPP Poll. The share with an unfavorable view of Kamala Harris increased by four points among the larger sample, from 46% unfavorable in August to 50% in October. Most of the increase in unfavorable views was among Republicans (from 84% to 88%) and independents (from 42% unfavorable to 54% unfavorable).

Candidate traits

Likely voters' views of the respective candidates’ traits continue to be closely divided in most cases. The closeness of these assessments is largely a reflection of partisanship in an increasingly closely divided political universe in Texas.

Harris has a very slight edge over Trump, within the poll’s margin of error, in evaluations of temperament (51% v. 48%), and honesty and trustworthiness (43% v. 40%). Trump has a similarly slight edge in being “knowledgeable” (55% v. 53%) and “competent” (53% v. 51%). Trump holds a clearer advantage in being a “strong leader” (57% v. 43%) in the assessment of likely voters.

The two are tied in evaluations of empathy (both at 46%).

Biden’s exit from the race has led to an increased Democratic focus on claims that Trump is too old to be president in 2025: 45% of likely voters agreed that Trump “is too old to be president in 2025,” about the same as the share among registered voters in August (46%). This share remains much smaller than the share who thought Joe Biden was too old to be president, 69%, in the June UT/TxPP Poll when the president was the Democratic candidate. 

Attitudes fall strongly along partisan lines. Among Republicans, only 14% think Trump will be too old to assume the presidency again, while 82% think the opposite. Among Democrats, 82% think Trump will be too old for the job, while only 16% think he won’t be too old. Independents are more closely divided: a majority (59%) think Trump will be too old, and 34% think he won’t be too old. 

Perceptions of candidate ideology

Asked to rate each of the major party candidates in the presidential race on a 7-point scale ranging from extremely liberal (1) to extremely conservative (7), 37% of likely voters rated Donald Trump as “extremely conservative” compared to 47% who rated Kamala Harris as “extremely liberal.”

While both candidates are making efforts to target moderate voters in an increasingly competitive Texas, voters’ assessments of Harris and Trump reflect the overall ideological sorting of Texans in the two parties. Overall, only 9% of likely voters place Trump “in the middle,” while 75% place him on the conservative side of the middle. By comparison, 17% place Harris in the center, and 72% place her on the liberal side of the ideological spectrum. 

Looking more closely at the overall ratings, the larger share judging Harris as more ideologically extreme is composed mainly of Republican and conservative voters (the categories  substantially overlap – more indication of ideological sorting). The image of Harris as an extreme liberal cultivated by Republican candidates and campaigns has taken root among most Republican voters in the state: A substantial majority, 80%, view Harris as “extremely liberal,” compared to 13% of Democrats and 26% percent of independents who share this same evaluation. Among self-described conservatives, 79% evaluate her as “extremely liberal.”

By contrast, Democrats view their candidate as presenting a more moderate profile. The plurality of Democrats, 29%, evaluate Harris as “in the middle” – 4 on the 7 point scale – with another 21% evaluating her as just to the left of center (3 on the scale). Only 13% view her as extremely liberal. The share of independents who see Harris as extremely liberal, 26%, is somewhat larger than the share of Democrats but much smaller than the share of Republicans.

Donald Trump’s ideological profile is less sharply defined among Texas voters, and voters are less likely to view him as on the extreme end of the ideological spectrum: Only 37% of likely voters see Trump as “extremely conservative,” including 27% of Republicans, 50% of Democrats, and 31% of independents.

Dynamics in the U.S. Senate Race In Texas

Incumbent U.S. Senator Ted Cruz’s 51% to 44% lead over Colin Allred among likely voters heading into the early voting period is evidence of a further tightening race, but leaves Allred with ample ground to make up with less than a month to go until election day.

Overall, Cruz is viewed favorably by 45% of likely voters and unfavorably by 43%, largely similar to overall views of Allred (40% favorable; 39% unfavorable), even if the composition of those holding favorable and unfavorable views differs dramatically.

Cruz remains more of a known quantity than Allred, even if the Democratic Congressman has increased voters’ familiarity with him compared to when he started his quest to replace Cruz in 2023. Allred has been embraced by Democrats who have a view of him – 77% hold a favorable view of him, while only 4% expressed an unfavorable view. Yet nearly a fifth of Democratic registered voters still express a neutral view (13%) or have no opinion (6%) about him as he nears the end of his first attempt to win statewide office. This problem is also present among likely voters: 12% are neutral and 5% have no opinion.

Cruz’s advantage in the trial ballot is likely being buttressed by slightly improved job approval ratings among key segments of the electorate since August polling, including among Latinos (October: 47% disapprove, 36% approve; August: 55% disapprove, 33% approve); suburban voters (October: 44% disapprove, 46% approve; August: 48% disapprove, 42% approve); and women (October: 44% disapprove, 42% approve; August: 49% disapprove, 37% approve).

Both candidates have made strategic efforts to claim the mantle of bipartisanship, cooperation, and moderation as part of their 2024 campaigns. To assess the impact of these appeals, as in the presidential race, voters were asked to place each of the candidates on a seven point ideological scale. Overall among likely voters, Cruz was viewed as more extreme ideologically than Allred, with 44% of voters rating Cruz as “extremely conservative” — a 7 on the 7 point scale — along with another 24% of voters who rated him a 6 out of 7.

Asked about Allred, only 26% of likely voters rated the Congressman as “extremely liberal” — a 1 on the 7 point scale — along with 15% who rated him a 2. Forty-three percent of likely voters placed Allred in one of the three middle ideological categories, compared to only 20% who placed Cruz in the same ideological space.

Many observers, with varying degrees of appropriateness, are looking to Ted Cruz’s narrow defeat of Beto O’Rourke in 2018 for insight into the current race. The October results largely mirror UT/TXP polling conducted in October on the eve of Cruz’s last re-election campaign in 2018, in which polling found the Senator leading O’Rourke 51% to 45%. (Cruz won 50.9% to 48.3%.)

Allred has largely consolidated the available support of his base, with 80% of likely Democratic voters saying that they hold a favorable view of him, only slightly less than hold a favorable view of Joe Biden (83%), Tim Walz (84%), and their party’s presidential candidate, Kamala Harris (92%). At this point in 2018, O’Rourke was viewed favorably by 93% of likely Democratic voters, leaving Allred with some potential room to grow before the final votes are cast if he can reach Democratic voters who have still not gravitated toward his candidacy.

Looking at key groups in the electorate and comparing their 2018 and 2024 preferences: 

• Allred, like O’Rourke, leads Cruz among the state’s independent voters, 49% to 37%; O’Rourke led 51% to 39% in 2018. 
• The suburbs, where Cruz leads Allred 52% to 45% among likely voters, remain competitive, as they were in the October 2018 poll, when Cruz led O’Rourke 55% to 43%.
• Cruz is now only trailing Allred by 5-points in urban areas in the latest polling (50% to 45%), a sign Cruz has narrowed the large gap he faced in urban areas against O’Rourke in 2018 (64% to 31%), and
• Hispanic voters have also demonstrated a marked shift, supporting O’Rourke over Cruz in 2018 polling by a margin of two-to-one (60% to 33%), but in October 2024 polling, statistically indistinguishable in their support for Cruz (49%) and Allred (47%).  

Key voter groups in the Presidential and U.S. Senate races

The gradual increase in electoral competitiveness between the two parties in Texas has led to increasing attention to shifting allegiances among key demographic groups in the state, and to groups such as moderates and independents who campaigns may be able to persuade to add to their parties’ base of dependable, habitual partisans.

The demographic groups receiving the most scrutiny for evidence of shifting partisan allegiances in the national presidential election, such as young voters, are also gaining attention in Texas, even if the state, handicapped as “leaning Republican” by prominent forecasters, is not on the list of battleground states where seemingly infinitesimal shifts among key groups might tilt the outcome of the national — or state — election.

The table below looks at the preferences of key groups of likely voters in the presidential and U.S. Senate races. A few key takeaways from the data, as we await actual voting:

Evidence continues to accumulate of a shift in the partisan allegiances of Latinos, though this shift has long been foreshadowed in Texas. As is evident in other state and national polling, the major candidates are running roughly even among Latinos (allowing for the large margin of error for the estimates for Latino preferences). 

There is little evidence of a weakening of black voters' support for the Democrats, particularly in the Presidential race. Allred is underperforming expectations, but this aligns with a lingering lack of commitment to Allred among Democrats overall as the first time candidate continues to increase his name recognition statewide.

In the present election, polling suggests a rationale for the clear efforts by Democratic candidates, particularly Colin Allred, to appeal to moderate and independent voters. Both Harris and Allred lead among these two groups by substantial margins.

The suburbs remain the flashpoint for political competition in the state. Trump and Cruz both lead in the suburbs, where most of the votes are to be found – but by single digits.

There are several sources of caution necessary at this stage of the campaign when interpreting changes over time in group support using polling data to date. Most of the subgroups are sufficiently small subsets with large margins of error, and results for them are therefore subject to variance in multiple polls over time.

Key Issues in the 2024 Election

Throughout 2024, large shares of Texas voters have indicated that the economy, particularly rising prices and their impact on the cost of living, remains their primary focus. Attention to the perennially salient issues of immigration and border security follow closely, with concerns about abortion and women’s rights and democracy regularly rounding out voters’ top concerns in 2024.

In order to better understand the issue environment in the 2024 election, the October UT/TXP poll asked voters extensive questions about each of these areas (in addition to extensive questioning conducted throughout the election cycle). Below are brief looks at some of the batteries of items asking about each of these key areas and, where appropriate, key differences between groups. (More interpretation of this data is forthcoming.)

Concerns about the economy

Voters have expressed persistent concerns about the state and national economies throughout the last year, including concerns about their own economic situation (to see how the latest results fit into trends in Texans economic and track assessments, see our trends compilation page). In October polling, voters were asked their degree of concern about nine different economic issues, and, as in August polling, concerns about the price of food and consumer goods topped the list, with 69% of voters “very concerned,” unchanged from polling conducted throughout the year.

Concerns about immigration

Both the presidential and senate campaigns continue to focus their messaging on immigration and the border. Republican candidates are generally stressing their embrace of enforcement-based approaches to the border and restrictive immigration policies. Democratic candidates have largely been on defense as they attempt to throttle back their party’s historically less hardline approach to these issues without alienating important liberal constituencies.

The poll explored responses to common messages about immigrants, both positive and negative. More Texans were willing to ascribe positive traits or characteristics to immigrants than endorsed negative views. For example, 65% agreed that “immigrants are generally hard-working people;” 62% agreed that “immigrants fill jobs Americans won’t do”; and 57% agreed that “immigrants are part of what makes America special.”

But beneath the broader embrace of positive propositions about immigrants, partisan differences were striking. When the results are broken down by party identification, the positive responses listed above are fueled by virtual consensus among Democrats, but much less agreement among Republicans. For example, 80% of Democrats agree that “immigrants are part of what makes America special,” compared to only 39% of Republicans who agree with that proposition.

Republican respondents were much more likely to agree with the negative characterizations of immigrants. More than half of Republican registered voters agreed that “immigrants are more likely to commit crimes” (58%, compared to 16% of Democrats), “take jobs and wages away from U.S. citizens” (64%, compared to 18% of Democrats), “are looking for handouts and welfare” (69%, compared to 22% of Democrats), and “put a strain on local resources” (80%, compared to 31% of Democrats).

(To see more results related to immigration and/or border security, check out the polling search tool.)

Views about abortion access in Texas

Abortion remains central to Democratic campaign efforts in Texas and across the country as virtually all polling suggests that the near-prohibition on abortion implemented in Texas in 2021 and secured by the overturning of Roe v. Wade by the U.S. Supreme Court the following year are out of step with public opinion on access to abortion. August UT/Texas Politics Project polling found a plurality of voters, 49%, saying that the state’s abortion laws should be made less strict. The latest poll adds depth to that result.

In the October poll, Texas voters were asked a series of questions about the potential time a woman should have to obtain a legal abortion in the context of seven different circumstances, where the time to obtain a legal abortion ranged from “never” to “at any point during the pregnancy”, with 6 weeks, 12 weeks, 24 weeks, and 36 weeks in between. Overall, the results show that no more than a third of voters would ban all access to abortion in any of the seven circumstances tested, and in the case of rape, incest, danger of maternal mortality, or a serious birth defect, 73% or more of voters would allow some time to access a legal abortion — with majorities in favor of some legal access in each of the other three circumstances. (These results are consistent with previous surveys including the same battery of questions.)

Partisan differences remain persistent, and notable. Democrats remain much more supportive of access to abortion throughout a pregnancy, and under more circumstances. Yet only a small share of Republicans favor absolutely prohibiting access to abortion under any circumstance.

Despite these views, when asked if it was a good thing or a bad thing for the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade and allow the state’s to make their own abortion policies, 45% of Texas voters thought this was a good thing (including 70% of Republicans), while 40% said this was a bad thing (including 69% of Democrats).

Concerns about the conduct of the election and trust in results

Asked whether or not they will personally trust the results of the presidential election regardless of who wins, a clear but not overwhelming majority, 60%, indicate that they will trust the results compared to 10% who say that they won’t and 31% who remain unsure. While 80% of Democrats said they will trust the outcome of the 2024 election, this was true of only 43% of Republicans, among whom an equal share, 43%, say they are unsure if they will trust the outcome along with another 15% who indicate that they will not.

To further delve into election concerns, Texans were asked how concerned they were about a range of potential issues in the 2024 election. Overall, concerns were widespread, with significant group differences that align with familiar partisan signaling about voting and elections in Texas. The only area of relatively clear bipartisan concern was the problem of misinformation on social media. Overall, 54% thought this would be “an extremely serious problem,” including 66% of Democrats, and 46% of both Republicans and independents.

In evaluating 9 other potential problems, 40% or more of Republican registered voters expected the following would be an “extremely serious problem”: voting by “ineligible voters” (57%), inaccurate vote counting (48%), hacked voting machines (40%), and “people voting multiple times (40%). A quarter or less of Democrats expressed the same assessment of each of these items.

Concerns among Democrats were more muted overall, and most intense regarding different potential problems. After misinformation, 30% or more of Democrats were most likely to think the following problems would be extremely serious: political violence (43%), voter intimidation (39%), and eligible voters being prevented from voting (38%).

In a retrospective assessment of attitudes toward the legitimacy of the electoral process, 58% said they believed Joe Biden legitimately won the 2020 presidential election, while 30% said President Biden did not legitimately win the election, and 12% were not sure. The share of Texas voters who accept Biden’s election as legitimate has increased from a low of 52% registered in two UT/Texas Politics Project polls since February 2022, and has held steady between 56% and 58% in five polls conducted in 2024. A majority of Republicans, 55%, rejected the legitimacy of Biden’s election, though this is the lowest share of election denial among Republicans in 15 repetitions of the item in the poll over the last two and a half years. In the latest poll, 68% of independents and 95% of Democrats accepted the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election.

At the state level, in the midst of efforts by state officials to legally challenge some local efforts to promote voter registration (and counter efforts by some of those officials), 66% of Texas registered voters say they support efforts by Texas counties to encourage voter registration among eligible, but unregistered adults — including 76% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans.

Job approval of Texas political leaders

• Governor Greg Abbott: 51% approve, 38% disapprove
• Lt. Governor Dan Patrick: 39% approve, 32% disapprove
• Speaker of the House Dade Phelan: 21% approve, 28% disapprove
• Attorney General Ken Paxton: 36% approve, 36% disapprove
• Senator Ted Cruz: 45% approve, 40% disapprove
• Senator John Cornyn: 32% approve, 33% disapprove

Check back next week for more discussion of additional results on state policy and other items in the October poll. For notices about new content, future poll results, and other Texas Politics Project news, add your name to our mailing list using the form below.

[Note: an earlier version of the post had the wrong month for the field dates. This has been corrected - h/t the ever-vigilant and helpful Patrick Svitek.]