Joshua Blank

The 2022 Texas Primaries Answer Some Questions, Raise Some Others as the Winners Move On Amidst a lot of Run-Offs

March 4, 2022
By: 
Jim Henson
Joshua Blank

The first round of the Texas primary election is behind us, though many of the campaigns will continue with significant statewide, legislative, and Congressional run-off elections in both parties. While there have already been a lot of hot takes and some floating of big themes, we provide a few questions and observations that have occurred to us in the post-election haze. There will be more to come. 

Resources for the 2022 Texas primaries and the State of the Union Address

February 28, 2022
By: 
Jim Henson
Joshua Blank

We've compiled a brief list of Texas Politics Project resources for those who, out of vocation or avocation, will be keeping an eye on the 2022 Texas primary elections and President Joe Biden's State of the Union address. There are of course a ton of shared crib sheets and Twitter accounts to follow out there, but I’ll let you sort that out per your preferences. But if you have sources you think are particularly good and might be flying under the radar, by all means, send them along

Biden Underwater: A look at the President’s Standing among Texas Voters on the eve of the State of the Union Address

February 28, 2022
By: 
Joshua Blank
Jim Henson

The State of the Union address is a chance for presidents to frame their successes, condition their failures, and overall, try to affect the trajectory of one’s presidency by shaping public awareness and congressional support for the president’s agenda. Biden faces challenges on multiple fronts that make it highly unlikely, or at least highly challenging, for his speech to overcome a broadly negative political environment.

Texas 2022 Primary Electorate: Comparisons with the Partisan Electorate

February 22, 2022
By: 
Joshua Blank
Jim Henson

It is commonly understood, based on observation of the actions of legislators and other elected officials, that primary voters tend to be more extreme versions of the party overall – but with little data brought to bear on this observation other than the actions of the officials this process produces. The most recent University of Texas / Texas Politics Project poll, and its oversample of primary voters, allow us to examine the ways in which the Republican and Democratic Primary electorates compare to the overall electorates.

Texas trend data on Texas attitudes toward the COVID-19 pandemic and efforts to curb its impact (February 2022 UT/Texas Politics Project Poll update)

February 17, 2022
By: 
Jim Henson
Joshua Blank

The February 2022 UT/Texas Politics Project Poll adds a ninth assessment of Texans’ attitudes about the coronavirus pandemic to the Texas Politics Project polling data archive, adding to data collected in batteries from polls conducted in April, June, and October of 2020, and February, April, June, August and October of 2021. The time series allows reporters, researchers, elected leaders, public health officials, and the public a view of how Texans’ concerns about COVID, behaviors during the pandemic, and evaluations of the official responses have changed throughout a year of pandemic conditions in Texas.

Abbott leads O’Rourke 47-37 in projected 2022 gubernatorial contest amid signs of fallout from the 87th Legislature and the corrosive impact of GOP rejection of the 2020 presidential election

February 14, 2022
By: 
Jim Henson
Joshua Blank

The release of the February 2022 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll coincides with the beginning of early voting in the Texas primaries, so trial ballots and all things election-related in the poll are likely to attract the most interest. Incumbent governor Greg Abbott leads former Congressman Beto O’Rourke 47% to 37% in a hypothetical match-up in the November General Election. In their primary races, Abbott remains above the run-off threshold, while O’Rourke is unsurprisingly a virtual consensus candidate among Democrats. Beyond the horse races, the poll paints a picture of a state experiencing strong political crosswinds in several policy areas. In some familiar issue areas, public opinion appears closely divided as a result of sharp and intense differences among partisans. In others, majorities (albeit often slim ones) oppose the direction state policy headed in the last legislative session, frequently as a result of broad Democratic opposition supplemented by divisions among Republicans. 

Job approval trends for Texas statewide incumbents and other trend data from the Texas Politics Project poll data archive (June 2022 UT/Texas Politics Project Poll update)

February 14, 2022
By: 
Jim Henson
Joshua Blank

This page compiles graphics for trends in job approval ratings of the current incumbents (President, Governor, Lt. Governor, U.S. Senators, U.S. President) that Texans assess on every poll. Bookmark the page for easy reference – we’ve also added similar graphics for trends in Texans’ assessment of conditions in Texas and the U.S., and some archival results for comparison with leaders no longer in office. This version updates the ratings with data from the Februrary 2022 University of Texas / Texas Politics Project Poll.

Second Reading Podcast: A conversation about trends in Latino voting and media narratives around them

February 9, 2022
By: 
Jim Henson
Joshua Blank

In a new Second Reading Podcast, Jim Henson and Josh Blank take a close look Latino voting patterns in Texas – and what common media narratives miss about the subject.

Polling shows why looming winter weather triggers Texans' anxieties about the grid, and their doubts about political leaders' response

February 2, 2022
By: 
Jim Henson
Joshua Blank

As the first serious winter storm descends on their state, Texans’ pervasive anxiety about the reliability of the state’s go-it-alone power grid has floated to the surface of public discussion like a North Atlantic iceberg. Weather forecasters and energy mavens assure us that the weather hitting a large swath of the state lacks the severity, duration, or geographic impact of the February 2021 disaster that left hundreds dead, millions of Texas without power in sub-freezing temperatures, and caused billions in damage. Polling we conducted both shortly after the 2021 outages and in the intervening months suggest that the seemingly widespread anxiety about the return of cold weather reflects the pervasive impact of the last storm, as well as a lack of confidence in the state leadership’s measures to ensure the reliability of the grid in the wake of last year’s failures. 

Comparing Trump-Biden Vote Shares in Old and New Texas House Districts

January 10, 2022
By: 
Joshua Blank

As campaigns and observers attempt to figure out where the most competitive legislative races will be in 2022, we can assess the change in competitiveness in electoral districts after redistricting by comparing the change in top-of-the-ticket 2020 vote shares won by major party candidates with the same results calculated using the new district lines.

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