We've compiled a brief list of Texas Politics Project resources for those who, out of vocation or avocation, will be keeping an eye on the 2022 Texas primary elections and President Joe Biden's State of the Union address. There are of course a ton of shared crib sheets and Twitter accounts to follow out there, but we’ll let you sort that out per your preferences. However, if you have sources you think are particularly good and might be flying under the radar, by all means, send them along.
Texas primary resources
Historical turnout in Texas. This graphic provides the big picture of Texas' historically anemic turnout across recent decades. At the linked page, you can click on the lines for particular elections to toggle them on and off. Move your cursor over the line to see specific data points.
Turnout as a Percentage of Voting-Age Population in Five Types of Texas Elections and Presidential Elections Nationwide, 1970-2022
| category | Presidential Elections-National | Presidential Elections-Texas | Gubernatorial Elections | Presidential Primaries | Gubernatorial Primaries | Special Constitutional Elections |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | null | null | 31.12 | null | 15.59 | null |
| 1971 | null | null | null | null | null | null |
| 1972 | 55.21 | 44.90 | null | 29.84 | null | null |
| 1973 | null | null | null | null | null | null |
| 1974 | null | null | 19.99 | null | 19.21 | null |
| 1975 | null | null | null | null | null | null |
| 1976 | 53.55 | 46.14 | null | 21.37 | null | null |
| 1977 | null | null | null | null | null | 6.22 |
| 1978 | null | null | 25.29 | null | 21.04 | null |
| 1979 | null | null | null | null | null | 4.61 |
| 1980 | 52.56 | 45.55 | null | 19.10 | null | null |
| 1981 | null | null | null | null | null | 8.07 |
| 1982 | null | null | 29.82 | null | 14.81 | null |
| 1983 | null | null | null | null | null | 6.91 |
| 1984 | 53.11 | 47.55 | null | 15.86 | null | null |
| 1985 | null | null | null | null | null | 8.24 |
| 1986 | null | null | 29.05 | null | 13.85 | null |
| 1987 | null | null | null | null | null | 18.61 |
| 1988 | 50.11 | 44.34 | null | 22.73 | null | null |
| 1989 | null | null | null | null | null | 9.33 |
| 1990 | null | null | 31.08 | null | 18.70 | null |
| 1991 | null | null | null | null | null | 16.16 |
| 1992 | 55.09 | 47.64 | null | 17.65 | null | null |
| 1993 | null | null | null | null | null | 8.52 |
| 1994 | null | null | 33.62 | null | 12.19 | null |
| 1995 | null | null | null | null | null | 5.55 |
| 1996 | 49.08 | 40.97 | null | 14.17 | null | null |
| 1997 | null | null | null | null | null | 8.45 |
| 1998 | null | null | 26.53 | null | 8.95 | null |
| 1999 | null | null | null | null | null | 6.69 |
| 2000 | 51.30 | 44.25 | null | 13.22 | null | null |
| 2001 | null | null | null | null | null | 5.58 |
| 2002 | null | null | 29.35 | null | 10.62 | null |
| 2003 | null | null | null | null | null | 9.31 |
| 2004 | 55.40 | 46.11 | null | 9.49 | null | null |
| 2005 | null | null | null | null | null | 13.82 |
| 2006 | null | null | 26.44 | null | 6.99 | null |
| 2007 | null | null | null | null | null | 6.31 |
| 2008 | 56.90 | 45.55 | null | 23.89 | null | null |
| 2009 | null | null | null | null | null | 5.77 |
| 2010 | null | null | 25.74 | null | 11.60 | null |
| 2011 | null | null | null | null | null | 3.80 |
| 2012 | 53.60 | 43.70 | null | 11.16 | null | null |
| 2013 | null | null | null | null | null | 6.14 |
| 2014 | null | null | 24.3 | null | 11.60 | null |
| 2015 | null | null | null | null | null | 8.30 |
| 2016 | 54.70 | 46.45 | null | 22.13 | null | null |
| 2017 | null | null | null | null | null | 4.50 |
| 2018 | null | null | 42.07 | null | 13.15 | null |
| 2019 | null | null | null | null | null | 9.19 |
| 2020 | 61 | 52.39 | null | 19.04 | null | null |
| 2021 | null | null | null | null | null | 6.79 |
| 2022 | null | null | 37.06 | null | 13.86 | null |
Characteristics of different subsets of the electorate. A compilation of data based on polling and other sources that look at the ways in which the Republican and Democratic Primary electorates (as represented in samples of registered voters with histories of voting in these primaries and intentions to vote again in 2022) compare to the overall Republican and Democratic electorates, respectively, as of February 2022.
| Ideology | Registered Voters | Republican Party Voters | Republican Primary Voters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moderate | 28% | 12% | 8% |
| Lean conservative | 11% | 19% | 9% |
| Somewhat conservative | 18% | 35% | 40% |
| Extremely conservative | 16% | 31% | 41% |
| Ideology | Registered Voters | Democratic Party Voters | Democratic Primary Voters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moderate | 28% | 31% | 19% |
| Lean liberal | 8% | 15% | 16% |
| Somewhat liberal | 11% | 25% | 34% |
| Extremely liberal | 9% | 20% | 29% |
Sorting out the intraparty differences highlighed in primary elections. One of our recurring poll questions asked partisans to rate the ideological posture of their party's elected officials. In a primary season where Republican incumbents are being pressed by activists and interest groups to prove their conservative commitments, and Democratic candidates are pressing each other to demonstrate their progressive commitments, this overall assessment provides a heat check on partisans' ideological mood.
| Category | Republican |
|---|---|
| Conservative enough | 46% |
| Too conservative | 10% |
| Not conservative enough | 35% |
| Don't know/No opinion | 9% |
| Category | Democrat |
|---|---|
| Liberal enough | 32% |
| Too liberal | 11% |
| Not liberal enough | 39% |
| Don't know/No opinion | 19% |
Pre- and post-redistricting Trump vote shares in Texas House, Senate, and Congressional districts. These posts features tables that show the percentage vote share for Donald Trump and Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election in Texas' House, Senate and Congressional districts, before and after redistricting.
Trends in job approvals of Texas political leaders and Texas assessments of the economy and the path of the US and Texas. A compilation of trend data in the Texas Politics Project archive over the last decade and a half of polling.
| Poll | Approve | Disapprove | Neither/Don't Know |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2015 | 70% | 8% | 23% |
| February 2016 | 69% | 8% | 23% |
| June 2016 | 73% | 7% | 21% |
| October 2016 | 75% | 5% | 21% |
| February 2017 | 80% | 5% | 15% |
| June 2017 | 83% | 8% | 10% |
| October 2017 | 79% | 5% | 14% |
| February 2018 | 81% | 5% | 14% |
| June 2018 | 80% | 7% | 14% |
| October 2018 | 89% | 4% | 8% |
| February 2019 | 83% | 6% | 10% |
| June 2019 | 84% | 4% | 12% |
| October 2019 | 79% | 6% | 15% |
| February 2020 | 84% | 8% | 12% |
| April 2020 | 88% | 6% | 7% |
| June 2020 | 83% | 7% | 9% |
| October 2020 | 81% | 13% | 7% |
| February 2021 | 79% | 10% | 11% |
| March 2021 | 79% | 13% | 8% |
| April 2021 | 77% | 13% | 10% |
| June 2021 | 77% | 12% | 11% |
| August 2021 | 73% | 18% | 9% |
| October 2021 | 79% | 15% | 6% |
| February 2022 | 74% | 14% | 12% |
| April 2022 | 80% | 10% | 11% |
| June 2022 | 78% | 11% | 12% |
| August 2022 | 80% | 12% | 8% |
| October 2022 | 86% | 8% | 6% |
| December 2022 | 87% | 6% | 8% |
| February 2023 | 83% | 7% | 10% |
| April 2023 | 79% | 9% | 12% |
| June 2023 | 81% | 10% | 8% |
| August 2023 | 81% | 11% | 8% |
| October 2023 | 79% | 10% | 11% |
| December 2023 | 78% | 10% | 12% |
| February 2024 | 83% | 8% | 10% |
| April 2024 | 85% | 8% | 8% |
| June 2024 | 82% | 8% | 10% |
| August 2024 | 80% | 9% | 10% |
Track public polling on expected 2022 Texas gubernatorial race. Our poll tracker contains results from public polling in the expected Abbott-O'Rourke race.
State of the Union resources
Texas approval of Joe Biden’s job performance and conditions in the U.S. A compilation of recent data including trends in Texas voters' evaluations of President Joe Biden's overall job performance as well as approval ratings on specific issue areas from the recent February 2022 UT/Texas Politics Project Poll.
| category | Approve | Disapprove | Neither/Don't know |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 2021 | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| March 2021 | 44% | 43% | 12% |
| April 2021 | 44% | 46% | 11% |
| June 2021 | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| August 2021 | 40% | 51% | 9% |
| October 2021 | 35% | 55% | 11% |
| February 2022 | 36% | 52% | 11% |
| April 2022 | 37% | 54% | 9% |
| June 2022 | 35% | 55% | 11% |
| August 2022 | 40% | 52% | 9% |
| October 2022 | 39% | 52% | 10% |
| December 2022 | 42% | 50% | 8% |
| February 2023 | 41% | 50% | 10% |
| April 2023 | 40% | 49% | 11% |
| June 2023 | 38% | 50% | 12% |
| August 2023 | 38% | 52% | 9% |
| October 2023 | 37% | 53% | 11% |
| December 2023 | 38% | 54% | 8% |
| February 2024 | 42% | 50% | 8% |
| April 2024 | 43% | 51% | 6% |
| June 2024 | 39% | 42% | 10% |
| August 2024 | 39% | 52% | 9% |
With the war in Ukraine at center stage, Texas public opinion data on the intertwined attitudes toward Russia, Vladimir Putin, and Donald Trump. Texas polling data illustrates the attitudinal cross pressures, especially among Republican voters, likely to shape Republican responses to the Russian invasion and the Biden administrations' handling of it.
Pandemic attitudes in Texas. The COVID-19 pandemic has been a defining crisis of the Biden presidency, and an update on his administration’s response and plans going forward will certainly get some real estate in the SOTU. We’ve been tracking trends in overall and partisan attitudes toward the pandemic and pandemic policy in a post recently updated with data from the February 2022 UT/Texas Politics Project Poll.