Resources for the 2022 Texas primaries and the State of the Union Address

We've compiled a brief list of Texas Politics Project resources for those who, out of vocation or avocation, will be keeping an eye on the 2022 Texas primary elections and President Joe Biden's State of the Union address. There are of course a ton of shared crib sheets and Twitter accounts to follow out there, but we’ll let you sort that out per your preferences. However, if you have sources you think are particularly good and might be flying under the radar, by all means, send them along.

Texas primary resources

Historical turnout in Texas. This graphic provides the big picture of Texas' historically anemic turnout across recent decades. At the linked page, you can click on the lines for particular elections to toggle them on and off. Move your cursor over the line to see specific data points. 

Turnout as a Percentage of Voting-Age Population in Five Types of Texas Elections and Presidential Elections Nationwide, 1970-2022

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categoryPresidential Elections-NationalPresidential Elections-TexasGubernatorial ElectionsPresidential PrimariesGubernatorial PrimariesSpecial Constitutional Elections
1970nullnull31.12null15.59null
1971nullnullnullnullnullnull
197255.2144.90null29.84nullnull
1973nullnullnullnullnullnull
1974nullnull19.99null19.21null
1975nullnullnullnullnullnull
197653.5546.14null21.37nullnull
1977nullnullnullnullnull6.22
1978nullnull25.29null21.04null
1979nullnullnullnullnull4.61
198052.5645.55null19.10nullnull
1981nullnullnullnullnull8.07
1982nullnull29.82null14.81null
1983nullnullnullnullnull6.91
198453.1147.55null15.86nullnull
1985nullnullnullnullnull8.24
1986nullnull29.05null13.85null
1987nullnullnullnullnull18.61
198850.1144.34null22.73nullnull
1989nullnullnullnullnull9.33
1990nullnull31.08null18.70null
1991nullnullnullnullnull16.16
199255.0947.64null17.65nullnull
1993nullnullnullnullnull8.52
1994nullnull33.62null12.19null
1995nullnullnullnullnull5.55
199649.0840.97null14.17nullnull
1997nullnullnullnullnull8.45
1998nullnull26.53null8.95null
1999nullnullnullnullnull6.69
200051.3044.25null13.22nullnull
2001nullnullnullnullnull5.58
2002nullnull29.35null10.62null
2003nullnullnullnullnull9.31
200455.4046.11null9.49nullnull
2005nullnullnullnullnull13.82
2006nullnull26.44null6.99null
2007nullnullnullnullnull6.31
200856.9045.55null23.89nullnull
2009nullnullnullnullnull5.77
2010nullnull25.74null11.60null
2011nullnullnullnullnull3.80
201253.6043.70null11.16nullnull
2013nullnullnullnullnull6.14
2014nullnull24.3null11.60null
2015nullnullnullnullnull8.30
201654.7046.45null22.13nullnull
2017nullnullnullnullnull4.50
2018nullnull42.07null13.15null
2019nullnullnullnullnull9.19
20206152.39null19.04nullnull
2021nullnullnullnullnull6.79
2022nullnull37.06null13.86null

Characteristics of different subsets of the electorate. A compilation of data based on polling and other sources that look at the ways in which the Republican and Democratic Primary electorates (as represented in samples of registered voters with histories of voting in these primaries and intentions to vote again in 2022) compare to the overall Republican and Democratic electorates, respectively, as of February 2022.

Ideological Identification of Texas Voters Overall
(Compared To Republicans)

(February 2022 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Polling)
Ideology Registered Voters Republican Party Voters Republican Primary Voters
Moderate 28% 12% 8%
Lean conservative 11% 19% 9%
Somewhat conservative 18% 35% 40%
Extremely conservative 16% 31% 41%

 

Ideological Identification of Texas Voters
​(Compared To Democrats)

(February 2022 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Polling)
Ideology Registered Voters Democratic Party Voters Democratic Primary Voters
Moderate 28% 31% 19%
Lean liberal 8% 15% 16%
Somewhat liberal 11% 25% 34%
Extremely liberal 9% 20% 29%

 

Sorting out the intraparty differences highlighed in primary elections. One of our recurring poll questions asked partisans to rate the ideological posture of their party's elected officials. In a primary season where Republican incumbents are being pressed by activists and interest groups to prove their conservative commitments, and Democratic candidates are pressing each other to demonstrate their progressive commitments, this overall assessment provides a heat check on partisans' ideological mood.

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CategoryRepublican
Conservative enough46%
Too conservative10%
Not conservative enough35%
Don't know/No opinion9%

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CategoryDemocrat
Liberal enough32%
Too liberal11%
Not liberal enough39%
Don't know/No opinion19%

Pre- and post-redistricting Trump vote shares in Texas House, Senate, and Congressional districts. These posts features tables that show the percentage vote share for Donald Trump and Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election in Texas' House, Senate and Congressional districts, before and after redistricting.

Trends in job approvals of Texas political leaders and Texas assessments of the economy and the path of the US and Texas.  A compilation of trend data in the Texas Politics Project archive over the last decade and a half of polling. 

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PollApproveDisapproveNeither/Don't Know
November 201570%8%23%
February 201669%8%23%
June 201673%7%21%
October 201675%5%21%
February 201780%5%15%
June 201783%8%10%
October 201779%5%14%
February 201881%5%14%
June 201880%7%14%
October 201889%4%8%
February 201983%6%10%
June 201984%4%12%
October 201979%6%15%
February 202084%8%12%
April 202088%6%7%
June 202083%7%9%
October 202081%13%7%
February 202179%10%11%
March 202179%13%8%
April 202177%13%10%
June 202177%12%11%
August 202173%18%9%
October 202179%15%6%
February 202274%14%12%
April 202280%10%11%
June 202278%11%12%
August 202280%12%8%
October 202286%8%6%
December 202287%6%8%
February 202383%7%10%
April 202379%9%12%
June 202381%10%8%
August 202381%11%8%
October 202379%10%11%
December 202378%10%12%
February 202483%8%10%
April 202485%8%8%

Track public polling on expected 2022 Texas gubernatorial race. Our poll tracker contains results from public polling in the expected Abbott-O'Rourke race.

State of the Union resources

​​Texas approval of Joe Biden’s job performance and conditions in the U.S.  A compilation of recent data including trends in Texas voters' evaluations of President Joe Biden's overall job performance as well as approval ratings on specific issue areas from the recent February 2022 UT/Texas Politics Project Poll. 

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categoryApproveDisapproveNeither/Don't know
February 202145%44%11%
March 202144%43%12%
April 202144%46%11%
June 202143%47%10%
August 202140%51%9%
October 202135%55%11%
February 202236%52%11%
April 202237%54%9%
June 202235%55%11%
August 202240%52%9%
October 202239%52%10%
December 202242%50%8%
February 202341%50%10%
April 202340%49%11%
June 202338%50%12%
August 202338%52%9%
October 202337%53%11%
December 202338%54%8%
February 202442%50%8%
April 202443%51%6%

With the war in Ukraine at center stage, Texas public opinion data on the intertwined attitudes toward Russia, Vladimir Putin, and Donald Trump. Texas polling data illustrates the attitudinal cross pressures, especially among Republican voters, likely to shape Republican responses to the Russian invasion and the Biden administrations' handling of it.

Pandemic attitudes in Texas. The COVID-19 pandemic has been a defining crisis of the Biden presidency, and an update on his administration’s response and plans going forward will certainly get some real estate in the SOTU. We’ve been tracking trends in overall and partisan attitudes toward the pandemic and pandemic policy in a post recently updated with data from the February 2022 UT/Texas Politics Project Poll.