Beto O'Rourke makes his long-anticpated entry into the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election as the presumptive Democratic candidate, setting up a bruising general election contest with Gov. Greg Abbott in the general election as Abbott seeks re-election to a third term. (Abbott faces more comparatively serious primary resistance from candidates sustained by a small but pugnacious slice of Republican, conservative primary voters, but while he's not quite the presumptive candidate, he remains the odds-on favorite.)
There will of course be a lot more coverage of this race in the political press, especially given O'Rourke's established presence in the headspace of state and national political reporters. On O'Rourke's first official day in the race, we've compiled highlights from polling in the Texas Politics Project polling data archive, dating from his losing challenge to Senator Ted Cruz in 2018 to results for the October 2021 University of Texas / Texas Tribune Poll. You can click to specific results using the links below, and peruse all of the O'Rourke results in our polling graphics search engine. (And to be fair, the former congressman has been in our heads, too - we've written plenty about him in the Texas Politics Project blog and elsewhere since his elevation in 2017.)
Just a few highlights from the Ocobter poll tell a lot about where O'Rourke stands right now:
- In a then-hypothetical head-to-head match up with Greg Abbott, the governor led O'Rourke 46% to 37%; about 7% took the "someone else" option, and about 10% said that they hadn't thought about it enough to have an opinion.
- Abbott led 58%-31% among White Texans; O'Rourke led 54%-13% among African Americans, and 45% to 33% among Latinos.
- Abbott led 52%-36% among men, but (reflecting gender differences in party identification) held a much narrower 42%-38% lead among women, 12% of whom said they hadn't thought about it enough to have an opinion.
- Among suburbanites, Abbott led O'Rourke 47% to 36%.
- 35% viewed Beto O'Rourke favorably (20% very favorably), while 50% viewed him unfavorably - 44% very unfavorably. Within those numbers, 80% of Republicans view him very unfavorably; views among Democrats are, not surprisingly, very favorable overall, but less intense than Republicans' red-hot negativity – of the 78% of Democrats who view O'Rourke favorably, 47% view him very favorably, and 31% somewhat favorably.
- O'Rourke is pretty deeply underwater among independents (not including partisan leaners): only 22% view him favorably, and 48% view him unfavorably (net -26). But Greg Abbott is in comparable shape among independents, who as a group are channeling the general sense of dissatisfaction with political leaders and government evident in polling in many other areas: Abbott's job approval among independents in the same October UT/TT Poll was 27% approve and 57% disapprove (net -30).
Explore more details using the links below.
2022 Texas Democratic Primary
2022 General Election
Attitudes towards Beto O'Rourke in Texas Today
Attitudes towards Beto O'Rourke in Texas between 2018 Senate Run and Today
Attitudes towards Beto O'Rourke in Texas during the 2018 Senate Election
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Beto O’Rourke | 70% |
| Demetria Smith | 1% |
| Dierdre Gilbert | 1% |
| Larry Bagget | 1% |
| Michael Cooper | 0% |
| Someone else | 2% |
| Haven’t thought about it enough to have an opinion | 25% |
Link to graphic and results by relevant political and demographic groups.
| Category | Lean Democrat | Not very strong Democrat | Strong Democrat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beto O’Rourke | 61% | 65% | 79% |
| Demetria Smith | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| Dierdre Gilbert | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| Larry Bagget | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| Michael Cooper | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Someone else | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Haven’t thought about it enough to have an opinion | 36% | 30% | 18% |
| Category | Lean liberal | Somewhat liberal | Extremely liberal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beto O’Rourke | 56% | 75% | 75% |
| Demetria Smith | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Dierdre Gilbert | 1% | 3% | 0% |
| Larry Bagget | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Michael Cooper | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Someone else | 3% | 1% | 2% |
| Haven’t thought about it enough to have an opinion | 40% | 21% | 23% |
| Category | White | Black | Hispanic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beto O’Rourke | 67% | 70% | 77% |
| Demetria Smith | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Dierdre Gilbert | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| Larry Bagget | 1% | 0% | 2% |
| Michael Cooper | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Someone else | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| Haven’t thought about it enough to have an opinion | 28% | 29% | 17% |
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Greg Abbott | 46% |
| Beto O’Rourke | 37% |
| Someone else | 7% |
| Haven’t thought about it enough to have an opinion | 10% |
Link to graphic and results by relevant political and demographic groups.
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Abbott | 4% | 38% | 84% |
| Beto O’Rourke | 83% | 23% | 3% |
| Someone else | 3% | 16% | 9% |
| Haven’t thought about it enough to have an opinion | 10% | 24% | 5% |
| Category | White | Black | Hispanic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Abbott | 58% | 13% | 33% |
| Beto O’Rourke | 31% | 54% | 45% |
| Someone else | 7% | 4% | 10% |
| Haven’t thought about it enough to have an opinion | 4% | 29% | 12% |
| Category | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Greg Abbott | 51% | 42% |
| Beto O’Rourke | 36% | 38% |
| Someone else | 7% | 8% |
| Haven’t thought about it enough to have an opinion | 6% | 12% |
| Category | Urban | Suburban | Rural |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Abbott | 31% | 47% | 67% |
| Beto O’Rourke | 52% | 36% | 18% |
| Someone else | 6% | 9% | 5% |
| Haven’t thought about it enough to have an opinion | 11% | 8% | 11% |
| Category | 18-29 | 30-44 | 45-64 | 65+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Abbott | 19% | 41% | 53% | 62% |
| Beto O’Rourke | 54% | 38% | 35% | 26% |
| Someone else | 11% | 9% | 5% | 7% |
| Haven’t thought about it enough to have an opinion | 17% | 12% | 7% | 5% |
Attitudes towards Beto O'Rourke in Texas Today
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Very favorable | 20% |
| Somewhat favorable | 15% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 8% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 6% |
| Very unfavorable | 44% |
| Don’t know/No opinion | 7% |
Link to graphic and results by relevant political and demographic groups.
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very favorable | 47% | 9% | 1% |
| Somewhat favorable | 31% | 13% | 3% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 10% | 10% | 5% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 5% | 4% | 7% |
| Very unfavorable | 2% | 44% | 80% |
| Don’t know/No opinion | 5% | 20% | 4% |
| Category | Liberals | Moderates | Conservatives |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very favorable | 45% | 22% | 4% |
| Somewhat favorable | 28% | 26% | 3% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 9% | 13% | 5% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 8% | 3% | 5% |
| Very unfavorable | 4% | 23% | 79% |
| Don’t know/No opinion | 6% | 13% | 4% |
| Category | White | Black | Hispanic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very favorable | 16% | 34% | 24% |
| Somewhat favorable | 12% | 25% | 20% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 5% | 11% | 12% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 5% | 8% | 7% |
| Very unfavorable | 56% | 7% | 30% |
| Don’t know/No opinion | 5% | 15% | 7% |
| Category | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| Very favorable | 19% | 21% |
| Somewhat favorable | 17% | 14% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 4% | 11% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 5% | 6% |
| Very unfavorable | 50% | 38% |
| Don’t know/No opinion | 4% | 9% |
| Category | Urban | Suburban | Rural |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very favorable | 28% | 20% | 9% |
| Somewhat favorable | 20% | 16% | 7% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 9% | 7% | 8% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 8% | 6% | 4% |
| Very unfavorable | 27% | 46% | 62% |
| Don’t know/No opinion | 8% | 5% | 8% |
Attitudes towards Beto O'Rourke in Texas between Senate Run and Today
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Very favorable | 22% |
| Somewhat favorable | 20% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 8% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 6% |
| Very unfavorable | 40% |
| Don't know/no opinion | 4% |
Link to graphic and results by relevant political and demographic groups.
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Very favorable | 27% |
| Somewhat favorable | 16% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 7% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 6% |
| Very unfavorable | 39% |
| Don't know/no opinion | 5% |
Link to graphic and results by relevant political and demographic groups.
Attitudes towards Beto O'Rourke in Texas during the 2018 Senate Election
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Very favorable | 30% |
| Somewhat favorable | 13% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 7% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 6% |
| Very unfavorable | 38% |
| Don't know/no opinion | 6% |
Link to graphic and results by relevant political and demographic groups.
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Very favorable | 35% |
| Somewhat favorable | 11% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 3% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 6% |
| Very unfavorable | 44% |
| Don't know/no opinion | 2% |
Link to graphic and results by relevant political and demographic groups.
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Very favorable | 22% |
| Somewhat favorable | 15% |
| Neither favorable nor unfavorable | 16% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 8% |
| Very unfavorable | 16% |
| Don't know/no opinion | 24% |
Link to graphic and results by relevant political and demographic groups.