The Texas Politics Project polling data archive contains multiple items that bear on both the content and the context of the omnibus voting and elections bill being debated during the final days of the 87th Texas Legislature. We’ve written frequently about the public opinion context and the politics of the election agenda being pursued by the state’s Republican leadership, and will of course return to the topic again after we see what the legislature passes, and what public opinion looks like in its wake. As of now, nothing we’re seeing makes me think that the conclusion to a post Josh Blank and I wrote in March 2021 needs much modification:
“As the 87th Legislature now actively undertakes a post-Trump effort to impose new rules, restrictions, and penalties across the breadth of the election system, the latest efforts by Texas Republicans seem another manifestation of a well-established case of political Munchausen syndrome by proxy: Having spent the better part of the last few years trumpeting unverifiable signs of a non-existent illness in the body politic, they are once again making herculean efforts to administer various cures to a symptom that they have created along the way: a lack of trust in the system. Years of polling results provide ample evidence of Texans’ decayed trust in the voting process and the conduct of elections in the state, culminating in the lead up to the 2020 election when, in the October 2020 UT/Texas Tribune Poll, the majority of Texans (60%) were either unable (46%), or unwilling (14%) to say that they would trust the results of the upcoming presidential contest.
The efforts by Republican incumbents to protect themselves by more strictly regimenting elections in Texas may work to marginally assuage the widespread distrust of the system among GOP voters through a combination of visible action and the partisan effect of strengthening the position of Repubican incumbents. It’s a testament to their effectiveness and the partisanship that defines politics in the state that Texas Republicans will likely applaud them for delivering a cure without thinking to blame them for causing the disease in the first place.”
As the endgame on voting legislation that is gaining national attention unfolds over what's left of the Memorial Day weekend, I’ve compiled resources that reveal useful characteristics of the attitudinal context for this major legislative attempt to affect how elections are conducted in the future, and, by implication, what the composition of the electorate will be in upcoming elections. I’ve focused on topline results and parity identification, though the question section heads below link to item with extensive cross tabulations by other major groups.
Attitudes on legislative proposals (from April 2021 University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll)
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Strongly support | 50% |
| Somewhat support | 15% |
| Somewhat oppose | 7% |
| Strongly oppose | 8% |
| Don’t know | 19% |
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strongly support | 28% | 43% | 72% |
| Somewhat support | 19% | 16% | 12% |
| Somewhat oppose | 11% | 4% | 4% |
| Strongly oppose | 15% | 6% | 2% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 30% | 9% |
Prohibiting counties from offering voters the option of voting at a drive-through location.
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Strongly support | 31% |
| Somewhat support | 11% |
| Somewhat oppose | 11% |
| Strongly oppose | 36% |
| Don’t know | 12% |
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strongly support | 10% | 25% | 51% |
| Somewhat support | 9% | 8% | 13% |
| Somewhat oppose | 9% | 16% | 10% |
| Strongly oppose | 63% | 23% | 15% |
| Don’t know | 9% | 27% | 10% |
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Strongly support | 22% |
| Somewhat support | 14% |
| Somewhat oppose | 13% |
| Strongly oppose | 34% |
| Don’t know | 17% |
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strongly support | 7% | 11% | 39% |
| Somewhat support | 7% | 10% | 21% |
| Somewhat oppose | 10% | 16% | 13% |
| Strongly oppose | 65% | 30% | 8% |
| Don’t know | 11% | 33% | 18% |
Prohibiting counties from sending vote-by-mail applications to voters who haven’t requested them.
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Strongly support | 47% |
| Somewhat support | 9% |
| Somewhat oppose | 8% |
| Strongly oppose | 26% |
| Don’t know | 10% |
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strongly support | 12% | 41% | 82% |
| Somewhat support | 10% | 13% | 7% |
| Somewhat oppose | 14% | 7% | 3% |
| Strongly oppose | 53% | 16% | 5% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 24% | 4% |
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Strongly support | 61% |
| Somewhat support | 19% |
| Somewhat oppose | 5% |
| Strongly oppose | 4% |
| Don’t know | 11% |
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strongly support | 51% | 50% | 75% |
| Somewhat support | 25% | 16% | 14% |
| Somewhat oppose | 5% | 9% | 4% |
| Strongly oppose | 7% | 2% | 1% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 23% | 5% |
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Strongly support | 35% |
| Somewhat support | 21% |
| Somewhat oppose | 11% |
| Strongly oppose | 12% |
| Don’t know | 21% |
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strongly support | 16% | 31% | 54% |
| Somewhat support | 23% | 16% | 20% |
| Somewhat oppose | 18% | 8% | 6% |
| Strongly oppose | 21% | 9% | 5% |
| Don’t know | 22% | 36% | 14% |
Allowing volunteer poll watchers, including those recruited by political parties, to photograph, video, or audio record voters that they suspect to be engaged in an illegal activity. (This proposal did not make it into the final version of SB7.)
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Strongly support | 30% |
| Somewhat support | 18% |
| Somewhat oppose | 12% |
| Strongly oppose | 26% |
| Don’t know | 14% |
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strongly support | 10% | 23% | 50% |
| Somewhat support | 14% | 19% | 21% |
| Somewhat oppose | 14% | 11% | 9% |
| Strongly oppose | 48% | 15% | 11% |
| Don’t know | 13% | 32% | 10% |
Broader attitudinal context
Do you think that the rules for voting in Texas should be made more strict, less strict, or left as they are now? (February 2021 UT/Texas Tribune Poll)
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| More strict | 27% |
| Less strict | 25% |
| Left as they are now | 40% |
| Don't know/No opinion | 8% |
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| More strict | 5% | 30% | 46% |
| Less strict | 50% | 19% | 5% |
| Left as they are now | 35% | 37% | 44% |
| Don't know/No opinion | 10% | 14% | 5% |
| Category | Lean conservative | Somewhat conservative | Extremely conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| More strict | 32% | 48% | 59% |
| Less strict | 8% | 2% | 1% |
| Left as they are now | 49% | 48% | 34% |
| Don't know/No opinion | 11% | 1% | 6% |
Overall, how accurate do you think official election results are in the U.S.? (February 2021 UT/Texas Tribune Poll)
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Very accurate | 36% |
| Somewhat accurate | 16% |
| Somewhat inaccurate | 13% |
| Very inaccurate | 30% |
| Don't know/No opinion | 6% |
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very accurate | 73% | 21% | 8% |
| Somewhat accurate | 16% | 17% | 15% |
| Somewhat inaccurate | 2% | 16% | 21% |
| Very inaccurate | 4% | 31% | 52% |
| Don't know/No opinion | 5% | 14% | 4% |
| Category | Lean conservative | Somewhat conservative | Extremely conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very accurate | 25% | 5% | 11% |
| Somewhat accurate | 18% | 14% | 10% |
| Somewhat inaccurate | 22% | 27% | 15% |
| Very inaccurate | 31% | 52% | 59% |
| Don't know/No opinion | 4% | 2% | 4% |
| Category | Lean liberal | Somewhat liberal | Extremely liberal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very accurate | 63% | 77% | 69% |
| Somewhat accurate | 24% | 14% | 21% |
| Somewhat inaccurate | 4% | 1% | 3% |
| Very inaccurate | 5% | 2% | 7% |
| Don't know/No opinion | 5% | 5% | 1% |
Overall, how accurate do you think official election results are in Texas? (February 2021 UT/Texas Tribune Poll)
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Very accurate | 43% |
| Somewhat accurate | 35% |
| Somewhat inaccurate | 11% |
| Very inaccurate | 5% |
| Don't know/No opinion | 6% |
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very accurate | 65% | 26% | 30% |
| Somewhat accurate | 23% | 31% | 46% |
| Somewhat inaccurate | 4% | 18% | 14% |
| Very inaccurate | 4% | 7% | 6% |
| Don't know/No opinion | 4% | 18% | 4% |
| Category | Lean liberal | Somewhat liberal | Extremely liberal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very accurate | 58% | 69% | 64% |
| Somewhat accurate | 31% | 23% | 22% |
| Somewhat inaccurate | 5% | 4% | 6% |
| Very inaccurate | 2% | 1% | 5% |
| Don't know/No opinion | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| Category | Lean conservative | Somewhat conservative | Extremely conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very accurate | 34% | 25% | 34% |
| Somewhat accurate | 45% | 52% | 42% |
| Somewhat inaccurate | 15% | 16% | 15% |
| Very inaccurate | 2% | 4% | 6% |
| Don't know/No opinion | 4% | 2% | 3% |
Do you personally find voting in Texas elections to be easy or difficult? (February 2021 UT/Texas Tribune Poll)
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Very easy | 60% |
| Somewhat easy | 26% |
| Somewhat difficult | 7% |
| Very difficult | 2% |
| Don't know/No opinion | 5% |
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very easy | 45% | 49% | 76% |
| Somewhat easy | 37% | 21% | 17% |
| Somewhat difficult | 11% | 7% | 3% |
| Very difficult | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| Don't know/No opinion | 4% | 18% | 3% |
How serious a problem do you think eligible voters being prevented from voting will be in the 2020 elections? (October 2020 UT/Texas Tribune Poll)
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Extremely serious | 40% |
| Somewhat serious | 22% |
| Not too serious | 15% |
| Not at all serious | 17% |
| Don't know | 6% |
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extremely serious | 56% | 45% | 25% |
| Somewhat serious | 27% | 18% | 18% |
| Not too serious | 9% | 13% | 21% |
| Not at all serious | 4% | 11% | 31% |
| Don't know | 4% | 14% | 6% |
| Category | Lean conservative | Somewhat conservative | Extremely conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extremely serious | 20% | 20% | 34% |
| Somewhat serious | 25% | 20% | 14% |
| Not too serious | 27% | 21% | 16% |
| Not at all serious | 26% | 37% | 29% |
| Don't know | 2% | 2% | 6% |
| Category | Lean liberal | Somewhat liberal | Extremely liberal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extremely serious | 46% | 65% | 62% |
| Somewhat serious | 33% | 24% | 23% |
| Not too serious | 11% | 5% | 8% |
| Not at all serious | 3% | 2% | 5% |
| Don't know | 7% | 3% | 1% |
How serious a problem do you think people voting who are not eligible will be in the 2020 election? (October 2020 UT/Texas Tribune Poll)
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Extremely serious | 40% |
| Somewhat serious | 17% |
| Not too serious | 14% |
| Not at all serious | 24% |
| Don't know | 5% |
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extremely serious | 17% | 36% | 60% |
| Somewhat serious | 13% | 16% | 21% |
| Not too serious | 19% | 15% | 9% |
| Not at all serious | 47% | 19% | 6% |
| Don't know | 4% | 14% | 3% |
| Category | White | Black | Hispanic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extremely serious | 44% | 25% | 35% |
| Somewhat serious | 17% | 19% | 19% |
| Not too serious | 12% | 14% | 20% |
| Not at all serious | 24% | 27% | 23% |
| Don't know | 3% | 15% | 4% |
| Category | Lean conservative | Somewhat conservative | Extremely conservative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extremely serious | 47% | 60% | 75% |
| Somewhat serious | 25% | 23% | 17% |
| Not too serious | 14% | 11% | 2% |
| Not at all serious | 12% | 4% | 1% |
| Don't know | 2% | 1% | 5% |