The latest University of Texas / Texas Politics Project Poll finds Donald Trump maintaining a comfortable lead over President Joe Biden in Texas as the legally embattled former president seeks to replace the man who defeated him four years ago. In a five-way trial ballot, Trump leads Biden by 9 points, 45% to 36%, followed by Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. with 8%, and Cornel West and Jill Stein with 2% each. In a hypothetical head-to-head contest between the former and current residents of the White House, Trump leads by 8 points, 48% to 40%.
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 36% |
| Donald Trump | 45% |
| Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. | 8% |
| Cornel West | 2% |
| Jill Stein | 2% |
| Haven’t thought about it enough to have an opinion | 7% |
In the race for the U.S. Senate seat currently occupied by Ted Cruz, the two-term incumbent leads his Democratic challenger Colin Allred 46% to 33%, with 7% preferring an unnamed alternative and 15% expressing no preference.
The poll was conducted April 12-22, 2024, among 1200 registered voters. The results have a margin of error of +/- 2.83% (+/- 3.26% adjusted for weighting). Data was collected via the internet by YouGov.
Doubts about the legitimacy of the outcome in 2020, and about both candidates in the rematch of the last election, hover over the Presidential race.
A third of voters (33%), composed mostly of a majority of Republicans (61%), don’t think Biden “legitimately won the 2020 presidential election,” though a majority overall, 56%, accept the legitimacy of Biden’s victory — responses that have varied little in a dozen UT/TxPP polls conducted since February 2022.
More Biden (42%) than Trump supporters (29%) say they have concerns about their preferred candidate. Age dominates Biden-supporters’ concerns: in an open-ended question, 63% of concerned Biden supporters mentioned age-related issues as their chief worry about his candidacy followed at a distance by concerns about his handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict (10%) and the economy (8%).
No single reservation similarly prevails among concerned Trump supporters. The former president’s legal issues were most frequently cited (18%), followed by his personality, the amount of resistance to his agenda, and his unpredictable utterances (each mentioned by 13% of Trump supporters who expressed concern about his candidacy). Biden is 82 years old and Trump is 78, but a comparatively smaller share of Trump supporters expressed concerns about his age (7%).
These doubts notwithstanding, the poll found little indication of any weakening in partisan allegiances to the candidates, with 85% of Democrats and 90% of Republicans expressing support for their party’s standard bearer in the 2-way match-up.
Amidst headline-grabbing protests at higher education institutions in Texas and across the country, the poll found a plurality of Texans (35%) looking for the U.S. to balance support for Israel with the prevention of Palestinian civilian casualties. However, the plurality who favored a balanced U.S. response was statistically equal to the combined total of those who favored a response primarily supporting Israel's military efforts (22%) or primarily working to prevent Palestinian civilian casualties (14%). And nearly a third of Texans either thought the U.S. shouldn’t be involved in the conflict (16%) or didn’t offer an opinion (14%). The poll was conducted before the most recent protests at UT Austin and other Texas universities.
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| Primarily be working to support Israeli military efforts. | 22% |
| Primarily be working to prevent Palestinian civilian casualties. | 14% |
| Be working to balance support for Israeli military efforts AND the prevention of Palestinian civilian casualties. | 35% |
| Not be involved in the conflict between Israel and Hamas. | 16% |
| Don’t know/No opinion | 14% |
The statewide poll of registered voters found that immigration and border security were identified as the most important problem facing the state by the largest share of voters (39%), followed by the economy and inflation (15%) and political corruption and leadership (10%). Among Republicans, immigration and border security were dominant concerns (62%), followed at a distance by the economy and inflation (14%). Democratic concerns, following a recurring pattern in the UT/TxPP polling, were not dominated by a single issue. A fifth of Democrats (20%) said political corruption/leadership was the state’s biggest problem, followed by inflation and the economy (15%), immigration and border security (13%), and abortion and gun violence (9% each).
The poll explored Texas voters’ attitudes about prominent issues likely to dominate the presidential campaigns in the coming months, including abortion, border and immigration policy, and the economy.
Abortion access and policy: In the wake of Texas' de facto ban on abortion in most circumstances in the aftermath of the U.S. Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade, a plurality of Texans, 45%, say that state abortion laws should be made less strict, while 23% want them left as they are. A fifth (20%) would make them more strict, while 12% had no opinion.
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| More strict | 20% |
| Left as they are now | 23% |
| Less strict | 45% |
| Don’t know/No opinion | 12% |
- Amidst ongoing attention to the difficulties encountered by pregnant women seeking treatment for pregnancy-related health problems, a plurality of Texas voters (42%) said that Texas state government was doing too little to “protect the rights of women who are pregnant.” About a third (31%) thought the state was doing the right amount, 10% said the state was doing too much, and 17% offered no opinion.
- Relevant to ongoing discussions about the policy implications of state laws establishing constitutional rights at conception for emergency healthcare for women and fertility measures like in-vitro fertilization, 40% agreed that “Constitutional rights should be granted at conception,” while 36% disagreed and nearly a quarter (24%) were undecided.
- When asked to make more specific judgments about when during a pregnancy, and under what circumstances, women should be able to obtain a legal abortion, most Texas voters demonstrated a clear tendency to consider both timing and context in their judgments. Only 7% said women should never be able to obtain a legal abortion if their “health is seriously endangered.” In comparison, 45% said that in such a situation abortion should be an option “at any time during the pregnancy.”
- Among the groups most likely to favor abortion restrictions, pluralities of both Republicans and those voters who indicated that Constitutional rights and protections should begin at conception indicated that women should have some legal access to abortion for at least some of their pregnancy in four circumstances: if their health is seriously endangered, if their pregnancy was the result of rape or incest, or if there is a strong chance of a serious birth defect.
- Two-thirds of Texas voters (66%) disagreed when asked if a woman who has an abortion should face criminal penalties such as fines or jail, including 79% of Democrats, 72% of independents, and the majority, 55%, of Republicans.
Border security and immigration policy: With immigration and border policy remaining at the center of the presidential election (and even the lingering primary run-offs in Texas legislative races), a plurality of Texans view the number of migrants attempting to cross the U.S.-Mexico border as a crisis (48%), with another 23% saying it is a very serious problem, but not a crisis. Only 8% of Texas voters say the number of migrants crossing the border is not much of a problem.
- State policy. Among those voters who expressed concern about the number of migrants attempting to cross the U.S.-Mexico border (n=1075, +/-2.99%), a majority indicated that they were “very concerned” about the strain on local resources (59%), the national security of the U.S. (57%), the impact on crime (56%), and the impact on the economy (53%). At least three-quarters of GOP voters said they were “very concerned” about each of these, with a majority (53%) equally concerned about the impact on American culture.
- Asked whether they support or oppose seven actions by the state of Texas to address migration issues at the Southern border, a majority of Texas voters expressed support for all but preventing U.S. border patrol from accessing parts of the Texas-Mexico border (31% support, 51% oppose). Overall, 69% said they supported the additional deployment of state police and military personnel to the border; 65% supported the construction and/or repair of physical walls and barriers; 62% supported making it a state crime to be undocumented in Texas in most instances; 58% supported placing buoys and barbed wire at the Rio Grande to deter migration; 54% supported the state suing the federal government over immigration policies; and 51% supported for paying to bus foreign migrants to other parts of the United States.
- Federal policy. Asked which of nine possible federal immigration and border security policies would be most effective at addressing immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border, Texas voters showed no clear preference, with expanding the wall along the U.S.-Mexico receiving the endorsement of one in five voters (19%), driven largely by the preferences of Republicans, for whom it was the most prevalent choice (34%). Creating more opportunities for people to legally immigrate to the U.S. was the policy chosen by the plurality of Democrats (24%).
- Asked to consider nine possible immigration and border security policies that the federal government could implement, three policies received support from at least 70% of voters: Increasing resources provided to U.S. border patrol (81%); Increasing the number of judges and staff who process asylum applications (72%); and penalizing businesses that hire people who aren't legally allowed to work in the U.S. (70%). Each of the other policies received majority support except for one: Increasing U.S. aid to countries that migrants are leaving, which received the support of 41% of Texas voters.
The economy: Texas voters continue to express tepid evaluations of the economy. Overall, 48% say that the national economy is worse off compared to last year with only 28% saying the national economy is doing better; 33% rate the state economy as worse than last year’s, with 25% rating it better; while 41% rate their personal economic situation as worse compared to last year, with 25% rating it better.
| Poll | Better | Same Compared to a Year Ago | Worse |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 2009 | 17% | 39% | 43% |
| February 2010 | 17% | 41% | 41% |
| May 2010 | 20% | 42% | 38% |
| September 2010 | 20% | 39% | 40% |
| October 2010 | 19% | 38% | 41% |
| February 2011 | 20% | 45% | 35% |
| May 2011 | 18% | 40% | 41% |
| October 2011 | 16% | 40% | 43% |
| February 2012 | 20% | 45% | 34% |
| May 2012 | 19% | 48% | 32% |
| October 2012 | 23% | 43% | 34% |
| June 2013 | 25% | 44% | 30% |
| October 2013 | 22% | 41% | 35% |
| February 2014 | 25% | 43% | 31% |
| June 2014 | 27% | 42% | 29% |
| October 2014 | 27% | 42% | 30% |
| February 2015 | 27% | 44% | 28% |
| June 2015 | 26% | 48% | 24% |
| November 2015 | 23% | 45% | 30% |
| February 2016 | 25% | 45% | 28% |
| June 2016 | 23% | 44% | 29% |
| October 2016 | 27% | 44% | 27% |
| February 2017 | 27% | 50% | 23% |
| June 2017 | 25% | 52% | 20% |
| October 2017 | 31% | 47% | 21% |
| February 2018 | 38% | 42% | 18% |
| June 2018 | 37% | 42% | 20% |
| October 2018 | 39% | 39% | 19% |
| February 2019 | 40% | 39% | 19% |
| June 2019 | 40% | 37% | 19% |
| October 2019 | 40% | 38% | 18% |
| February 2020 | 41% | 38% | 19% |
| April 2020 | 28% | 34% | 35% |
| June 2020 | 24% | 43% | 31% |
| October 2020 | 23% | 44% | 31% |
| February 2021 | 18% | 49% | 29% |
| March 2021 | 22% | 49% | 28% |
| April 2021 | 21% | 53% | 23% |
| June 2021 | 23% | 49% | 25% |
| August 2021 | 20% | 46% | 31% |
| October 2021 | 20% | 43% | 35% |
| February 2022 | 21% | 39% | 38% |
| April 2022 | 17% | 37% | 43% |
| June 2022 | 14% | 32% | 53% |
| August 2022 | 17% | 38% | 42% |
| October 2022 | 13% | 35% | 49% |
| December 2022 | 16% | 36% | 46% |
| February 2023 | 16% | 35% | 46% |
| April 2023 | 21% | 33% | 44% |
| June 2023 | 19% | 36% | 42% |
| August 2023 | 18% | 35% | 45% |
| October 2023 | 19% | 32% | 47% |
| December 2023 | 23% | 35% | 40% |
| February 2024 | 27% | 33% | 39% |
| April 2024 | 25% | 32% | 41% |
| June 2024 | 22% | 34% | 42% |
While personal economic evaluations remained largely unchanged from the last survey, ratings of the national and Texas economies both declined slightly since February.
- Asked whether they expect the national economy to be better off or worse off a year from now, a plurality of voters, 36%, expect things to improve, while 23% expect them to stay the same and 28% expect conditions to deteriorate.
- Asked to rate their concern about nine economic issues, 68% of voters said they were “very concerned” about the price of food and consumer goods, with majorities also very concerned about the cost of healthcare (59%), the price of gasoline and energy (56%), and the cost of housing (55%). Fewer were “very concerned” about interest rates (45%), the cost of higher education (35%), people who want to work being unable to find jobs (34%), the stability of banks and financial institutions (30%), and how the stock market is doing (23%).
| category | Total |
|---|---|
| The price of food and consumer goods | 68% |
| The cost of healthcare | 59% |
| The price of gasoline and energy | 56% |
| The cost of housing | 55% |
| Interest rates | 45% |
| The cost of higher education | 35% |
| People who want to work being unable to find jobs | 34% |
| The stability of banks and financial institutions | 30% |
| How the stock market is doing | 23% |
The poll also included recurring assessments of political leaders in Texas and the U.S., as well as assessments of the general direction of the state and the country.
Job approvals
- Gov. Greg Abbott: 55% approve, 37% disapprove (net +17)
- Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick: 44% approve, 33% disapprove (net +11)
- Speaker of the House Dade Phelan: 27% approve, 30% disapprove (net -3)
- Attorney General Ken Paxton: 41% approve, 35% disapprove
- Senator John Cornyn: 36% approve, 38% disapprove (net -2)
- Senator Ted Cruz: 49% approve, 38% disapprove (net +11)
- President Joe Biden: 43% approve, 51% disapprove (-8)
- U.S. Congress approval: 25% approve, 54% disapprove (-29)
- U.S. Supreme Court: 41% approve, 38% disapprove (+3)
Assessment of the direction of the country did not change between February and April: 29% said the country was headed in the right direction, while 62% said it was on the wrong track.
Views of Texas were more positive but still dipped narrowly into negative territory: 43% judged the state as heading in the right direction, while 45% said it was on the wrong track.
Other highlights from the poll
While crime has been a recurring campaign theme (even as evidence accumulates that major crimes have decreased in much of the country), 36% of Texas voters report feeling “very safe” in the area in which they live; 54% say they feel “somewhat safe,” 6% “somewhat unsafe,” and 2% “very safe.” There was no statistical difference between Democrats and Republicans. The 8% saying that they felt either “somewhat” or “very unsafe” was the lowest recorded in seven surveys beginning in October 2020, and significantly less than the 14% who said the same in February 2023.
Texans remain evenly divided on whether they think that the state’s increasing racial and ethnic diversity is a cause for optimism (35%) or concern (36%). Broken down by party, Democrats were more likely to be optimistic than Republicans (52% compared to 22%).
Asked if, “in the face of political or policy conflicts, is it more important for government officials to compromise or to stand on principle?” More than half of Texas voters, 54%, favored compromise, while 46% want their leaders to stick to their principles. Democrats were much more likely to favor compromise (76%) than were Republicans (35%).
| Category | Democrat | Independent | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compromise | 76% | 48% | 35% |
| Stand on principle | 24% | 52% | 65% |
As discussions continue about which major party candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s campaign poses more of a threat to in the general election, the survey finds Kennedy viewed more positively by Republicans (38% favorable / 26% unfavorable) than by Democrats (29% favorable / 50% unfavorable).
After a long period of Congress being stymied over providing more U.S. aid to Ukraine, 28% said the U.S. was doing too much in response to the Russian invasion, while 26% said the U.S. was doing too little and 31% said the current U.S. response is appropriate. The share saying “too little” increased by 7 points since the question was last asked in December, while the share saying “too much” declined by 5 points.