Public opinion data points and other context for Greg Abbott’s 2023 State of the State address

February 15, 2023
By: 
Jim Henson
Joshua Blank

Greg Abbott will deliver the fifth State of the State address from San Marcos Thursday, February 16th, presenting the opportunity to direct public attention to his agenda and to send signals to the Legislature and other state leaders about his legislative priorities. The strongest indication of those priorities will be the subjects he designates as emergency items, which would exempt legislation so designated from the constitutional provision that prohibits both houses from passing bills during the first 60 days of the regular session.

Handicapping just what items will go on the priority list is an exercise in somewhat educated guessing, but the combination of the themes the governor campaigned on when defeating Beto O’Rourke in the 2022 election and the signals he has sent give us some pretty clear indications of what issues are in the pool of candidates. In his victory speech the night of the election, he gave pride of place to the issue du jour this session, property tax relief, as well as the “fight against Joe Biden’s war against oil and gas,” and a warning that “our schools are for education, not for indoctrination,” as well as dark warnings about crime and the border. Expect all of these to make marquee appearances in the SOTS, and some if not all to be translated into items on the emergency list in some form, given both his earlier promises and the content of Lt. Governor Patrick’s recently released priority bills for the session. (In 2021, in the midst of the pandemic and shortly after Donald Trump’s loss to Joe Biden, Gov. Abbott declared five emergency items: expanding broadband internet access, punishing local governments that “defund the police,” changing the bail system, ensuring “election integrity,” and civil liability protections for businesses that were open during the pandemic.) 

In anticipation of the Governor’s address, we’ve compiled public opinion data that provides context, such as views of the governor, general views of the state and economy, and issues on attitudes likely to appear in the speech.

Table of Contents
Different views of Gov. Abbott  job approval ratings from December 2022
Gov. Abbott job approval trend
Gov. Abbott issue approvals prior to 2022 election (October 2022 UT/Texas Politics Project Poll)
Reason for supporting Greg Abbott over Beto O’Rourke on eve of 2022 election
Most important problem facing Texas
Direction of the state
"Compared to a year ago, would you say that the Texas economy is a lot better off, somewhat better off, about the same, somewhat worse off, or a lot worse off?"
Personal economic conditions
Some key issues

Border spending
Private money/public school
Abortion
Guns

Different views of Gov. Abbott  job approval ratings from December 2022

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categoryTotal
Approve strongly24%
Approve somewhat25%
Neither approve nor disapprove9%
Disapprove somewhat7%
Disapprove strongly34%
Don't know1%

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CategoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Approve strongly4%9%48%
Approve somewhat9%36%39%
Neither approve nor disapprove9%13%7%
Disapprove somewhat7%11%4%
Disapprove strongly71%28%2%
Don't know0%3%1%

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CategoryLean conservativeSomewhat conservativeExtremely conservative
Approve strongly18%46%60%
Approve somewhat52%40%30%
Neither approve nor disapprove16%4%4%
Disapprove somewhat12%4%2%
Disapprove strongly2%6%5%
Don't know0%0%0%

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CategoryWhiteBlackHispanic
Approve strongly30%7%18%
Approve somewhat29%17%22%
Neither approve nor disapprove6%15%11%
Disapprove somewhat6%10%6%
Disapprove strongly28%49%41%
Don't know1%1%1%

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CategoryUrbanSuburbanRural
Approve strongly16%23%34%
Approve somewhat22%26%28%
Neither approve nor disapprove12%9%6%
Disapprove somewhat7%7%6%
Disapprove strongly41%34%26%
Don't know2%1%0%

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Gov. Abbott job approval trend

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PollApproveDisapproveNeither/Don't Know
November 201542%29%28%
February 201641%29%30%
June 201642%31%27%
October 201642%33%25%
February 201745%33%23%
June 201745%38%16%
October 201748%33%19%
February 201846%31%23%
June 201847%36%18%
October 201852%32%17%
February 201951%32%17%
June 201951%31%18%
October 201952%28%21%
February 202048%34%18%
April 202056%32%13%
June 202049%39%13%
October 202047%40%14%
February 202146%39%15%
March 202145%43%11%
April 202143%45%13%
June 202144%44%11%
August 202141%50%9%
October 202143%48%10%
February 202244%42%15%
April 202247%41%13%
June 202243%46%12%
August 202246%44%10%
October 202247%44%9%
December 202249%41%8%
February 202346%43%12%
April 202346%41%12%
June 202347%42%12%
August 202345%45%10%
October 202349%40%10%
December 202348%41%11%
February 202453%37%10%
April 202455%37%10%
June 202450%39%11%

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PollApproveDisapproveNeither/Don't Know
November 201570%8%23%
February 201669%8%23%
June 201673%7%21%
October 201675%5%21%
February 201780%5%15%
June 201783%8%10%
October 201779%5%14%
February 201881%5%14%
June 201880%7%14%
October 201889%4%8%
February 201983%6%10%
June 201984%4%12%
October 201979%6%15%
February 202084%8%12%
April 202088%6%7%
June 202083%7%9%
October 202081%13%7%
February 202179%10%11%
March 202179%13%8%
April 202177%13%10%
June 202177%12%11%
August 202173%18%9%
October 202179%15%6%
February 202274%14%12%
April 202280%10%11%
June 202278%11%12%
August 202280%12%8%
October 202286%8%6%
December 202287%6%8%
February 202383%7%10%
April 202379%9%12%
June 202381%10%8%
August 202381%11%8%
October 202379%10%11%
December 202378%10%12%
February 202483%8%10%
April 202485%8%8%
June 202482%8%10%

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PollApproveDisapproveNeither/Don't Know
November 201513%56%23%
February 201618%50%33%
June 201612%60%27%
October 201612%62%26%
February 201713%61%27%
June 20179%70%20%
October 201714%64%21%
February 201812%59%29%
June 201814%67%18%
October 201812%67%21%
February 201916%63%22%
June 201918%62%21%
October 201924%51%24%
February 202013%64%24%
April 202024%59%16%
June 202013%74%13%
October 202013%70%17%
February 202113%73%14%
March 202111%81%8%
April 20217%83%9%
June 20218%82%9%
August 20216%90%4%
October 20215%85%9%
February 202214%75%12%
April 202212%79%9%
June 20226%86%7%
August 202211%84%6%
October 20229%81%9%
December 202213%78%9%
February 202314%78%8%
April 202319%74%8%
June 202314%76%10%
August 202313%78%9%
October 202315%77%8%
December 202319%73%7%
February 202427%67%6%
April 202427%65%8%
June 202420%71%9%

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PollApproveDisapproveNeither/Don't Know
November 201539%28%44%
February 201641%30%29%
June 201634%39%27%
October 201631%39%29%
February 201723%48%29%
June 201733%44%24%
October 201745%30%26%
February 201838%20%41%
June 201839%34%26%
October 201841%32%27%
February 201954%23%23%
June 201942%29%30%
October 201943%26%31%
February 202038%30%31%
April 202034%41%25%
June 202041%36%23%
October 202033%39%29%
February 202133%33%34%
March 202134%36%30%
April 202134%37%28%
June 202141%44%15%
August 202130%52%18%
October 202127%57%16%
February 202242%43%16%
April 202233%41%26%
June 202227%55%19%
August 202237%43%19%
October 202240%48%12%
December 202245%39%16%
February 202338%46%15%
April 202325%54%21%
June 202339%40%21%
August 202331%53%15%
October 202334%53%13%
December 202334%51%15%
February 202436%50%14%
April 202435%46%19%
June 202429%48%23%

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Gov. Abbott issue approvals prior to 2022 election (October 2022 UT/Texas Politics Project Poll)

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categoryTotal
Immigration & border security46%
The coronavirus46%
The economy45%
Crime & public safety44%
Public education40%
Gun violence40%
Abortion access37%
Health care37%
Inflation & prices36%
The electric grid34%
Climate change30%

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CategoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Immigration & border security10%42%83%
The coronavirus14%30%77%
The economy12%34%78%
Crime & public safety10%31%79%
Public education11%31%69%
Gun violence10%25%69%
Abortion access8%27%65%
Health care10%19%62%
Inflation & prices8%19%64%
The electric grid10%18%61%
Climate change10%15%51%

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CategoryLean conservativeSomewhat conservativeExtremely conservative
Immigration & border security69%86%85%
The coronavirus68%81%79%
The economy69%83%86%
Crime & public safety61%85%85%
Public education53%69%79%
Gun violence50%71%77%
Abortion access41%71%81%
Health care49%62%72%
Inflation & prices50%65%72%
The electric grid44%64%68%
Climate change37%52%61%

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CategoryWhiteBlackHispanic
Immigration & border security58%19%37%
The coronavirus55%26%36%
The economy56%27%34%
Crime & public safety54%22%33%
Public education49%26%28%
Gun violence49%21%28%
Abortion access43%24%30%
Health care44%25%28%
Inflation & prices43%20%27%
The electric grid40%22%27%
Climate change36%20%23%

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CategoryMaleFemale
Immigration & border security56%38%
The coronavirus52%39%
The economy56%36%
Crime & public safety53%36%
Public education49%31%
Gun violence47%33%
Abortion access44%30%
Health care43%31%
Inflation & prices43%29%
The electric grid42%28%
Climate change38%24%

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CategoryUrbanSuburbanRural
Immigration & border security33%49%61%
The coronavirus36%48%58%
The economy33%49%58%
Crime & public safety31%48%54%
Public education31%40%52%
Gun violence31%41%48%
Abortion access29%37%51%
Health care30%36%48%
Inflation & prices28%36%47%
The electric grid29%35%45%
Climate change27%31%36%

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Reason for supporting Greg Abbott over Beto O’Rourke on eve of 2022 election

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categoryTotal
I want Greg Abbott to be elected governor63%
I don't want Beto O'Rourke to be elected governor37%

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CategoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
I want Greg Abbott to be elected governor92%40%63%
I don't want Beto O'Rourke to be elected governor8%60%37%

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CategoryLean conservativeSomewhat conservativeExtremely conservative
I want Greg Abbott to be elected governor48%60%71%
I don't want Beto O'Rourke to be elected governor52%40%29%

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Most important problem facing Texas

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categoryTotal
Border security18%
Immigration12%
Inflation/rising prices10%
Political corruption/leadership10%
Gun control/gun violence7%
The economy6%

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CategoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Border security2%14%37%
Immigration1%13%23%
Inflation/rising prices8%8%13%
Political corruption/leadership22%4%1%
Gun control/gun violence14%4%0%
The economy5%7%4%

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Direction of the state

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categoryTotal
Right direction39%
Wrong track46%
Don't know14%

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CategoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Right direction16%34%66%
Wrong track75%46%21%
Don't know10%20%13%

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CategoryLean conservativeSomewhat conservativeExtremely conservative
Right direction59%63%78%
Wrong track25%22%16%
Don't know16%15%7%

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CategoryMaleFemale
Right direction46%33%
Wrong track42%50%
Don't know12%17%

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PollRight DirectionWrong Track
October 200938%39%
February 201043%37%
May 201045%38%
September 201043%38%
October 201045%37%
February 201141%41%
May 201136%48%
October 201139%43%
February 201243%38%
May 201238%42%
October 201243%34%
February 201345%39%
June 201350%32%
October 201342%39%
February 201445%35%
June 201449%33%
October 201448%35%
February 201550%30%
June 201550%32%
November 201545%36%
February 201642%37%
June 201641%38%
October 201642%40%
February 201746%36%
June 201743%40%
October 201743%40%
February 201848%36%
June 201846%37%
October 201850%35%
February 201949%35%
June 201949%34%
October 201947%35%
February 202049%37%
April 202043%43%
June 202041%47%
October 202041%44%
February 202139%41%
March 202141%46%
April 202142%42%
June 202141%43%
August 202135%52%
October 202140%48%
February 202240%46%
April 202239%51%
June 202231%59%
August 202236%52%
October 202237%50%
December 202239%46%
February 202335%51%
April 202337%50%
June 202338%49%
August 202333%55%
October 202337%50%
December 202338%49%
February 202444%44%
April 202443%45%
June 202441%48%

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PollRight DirectionWrong Track
February 201058%25%
September 201061%24%
October 201068%21%
February 201159%27%
May 201150%34%
October 201161%27%
February 201263%21%
May 201260%27%
October 201269%20%
February 201357%25%
June 201363%22%
October 201353%27%
February 201458%27%
June 201461%29%
October 201460%24%
February 201567%18%
June 201570%17%
November 201560%26%
February 201661%22%
June 201661%22%
October 201661%23%
February 201776%10%
June 201776%12%
October 201771%18%
February 201876%12%
June 201879%9%
October 201883%9%
February 201979%10%
June 201977%12%
October 201975%14%
February 202080%10%
April 202071%15%
June 202072%16%
October 202070%19%
February 202159%23%
March 202163%26%
April 202165%23%
June 202164%21%
August 202156%31%
October 202168%20%
February 202263%25%
April 202261%28%
June 202252%36%
August 202259%28%
October 202265%22%
December 202266%21%
February 202359%27%
April 202362%26%
June 202357%27%
August 202356%33%
October 202354%30%
December 202356%30%
February 202461%25%
April 202459%29%
June 202461%27%

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PollRight DirectionWrong Track
February 201026%59%
September 201029%56%
October 201017%64%
February 201121%66%
May 201113%72%
October 201117%67%
February 201226%58%
May 201216%68%
October 201226%56%
February 201325%65%
June 201331%51%
October 201323%62%
February 201426%56%
June 201428%53%
October 201426%55%
February 201531%49%
June 201527%58%
November 201527%56%
February 201631%49%
June 201626%58%
October 201626%58%
February 201716%63%
June 201711%69%
October 201715%65%
February 201822%61%
June 201815%67%
October 201817%66%
February 201918%62%
June 201920%60%
October 201920%58%
February 202018%63%
April 202014%73%
June 20208%81%
October 202013%73%
February 202122%59%
March 202120%68%
April 202119%66%
June 202116%70%
August 202113%78%
October 202112%79%
February 202220%69%
April 202217%76%
June 202211%83%
August 202213%78%
October 202212%79%
December 202216%75%
February 202315%74%
April 202318%72%
June 202321%70%
August 202316%76%
October 202318%74%
December 202320%69%
February 202430%61%
April 202430%62%
June 202423%67%

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"Compared to a year ago, would you say that the Texas economy is a lot better off, somewhat better off, about the same, somewhat worse off, or a lot worse off?"

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categoryTotal
A lot better off3%
Somewhat better off13%
About the same36%
Somewhat worse off30%
A lot worse off12%
Don't know6%

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CategoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
A lot better off3%4%2%
Somewhat better off11%9%18%
About the same37%35%36%
Somewhat worse off30%32%31%
A lot worse off14%14%9%
Don't know5%6%3%

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Personal economic conditions

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categoryTotal
A lot better off4%
Somewhat better off12%
About the same36%
Somewhat worse off30%
A lot worse off16%
Don't know3%

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CategoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
A lot better off5%4%1%
Somewhat better off16%18%7%
About the same42%31%32%
Somewhat worse off24%33%37%
A lot worse off12%10%21%
Don't know2%4%1%

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PollBetterSame Compared to a Year AgoWorse
October 200917%39%43%
February 201017%41%41%
May 201020%42%38%
September 201020%39%40%
October 201019%38%41%
February 201120%45%35%
May 201118%40%41%
October 201116%40%43%
February 201220%45%34%
May 201219%48%32%
October 201223%43%34%
June 201325%44%30%
October 201322%41%35%
February 201425%43%31%
June 201427%42%29%
October 201427%42%30%
February 201527%44%28%
June 201526%48%24%
November 201523%45%30%
February 201625%45%28%
June 201623%44%29%
October 201627%44%27%
February 201727%50%23%
June 201725%52%20%
October 201731%47%21%
February 201838%42%18%
June 201837%42%20%
October 201839%39%19%
February 201940%39%19%
June 201940%37%19%
October 201940%38%18%
February 202041%38%19%
April 202028%34%35%
June 202024%43%31%
October 202023%44%31%
February 202118%49%29%
March 202122%49%28%
April 202121%53%23%
June 202123%49%25%
August 202120%46%31%
October 202120%43%35%
February 202221%39%38%
April 202217%37%43%
June 202214%32%53%
August 202217%38%42%
October 202213%35%49%
December 202216%36%46%
February 202316%35%46%
April 202321%33%44%
June 202319%36%42%
August 202318%35%45%
October 202319%32%47%
December 202323%35%40%
February 202427%33%39%
April 202425%32%41%
June 202422%34%42%

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PollBetterSame Compared to a Year AgoWorse
February 201016%44%41%
September 201020%34%45%
October 201020%39%41%
February 201116%49%34%
May 201118%45%37%
October 201113%39%48%
February 201215%43%41%
May 201215%45%40%
October 201214%47%38%
June 201322%39%38%
October 201315%41%42%
February 201422%47%32%
June 201422%46%32%
October 201422%42%35%
February 201524%47%29%
June 201519%54%27%
November 201526%42%33%
February 201620%43%37%
June 201618%45%34%
October 201614%47%37%
February 201730%52%17%
June 201732%52%14%
October 201744%39%16%
February 201856%34%10%
June 201851%38%8%
October 201861%32%6%
February 201959%33%6%
June 201959%30%8%
October 201960%32%6%
February 202065%25%7%
April 202041%33%23%
June 202034%48%16%
October 202033%46%19%
February 202120%50%28%
March 202121%48%31%
April 202120%53%27%
June 202120%49%28%
August 202115%46%37%
October 202114%42%43%
February 202216%37%46%
April 202214%31%54%
June 202210%24%66%
August 202212%33%52%
October 202211%27%61%
December 20228%32%58%
February 202311%29%59%
April 202317%29%53%
June 202315%31%53%
August 202311%31%58%
October 202314%28%59%
December 202318%30%52%
February 202417%29%53%
April 202421%24%54%
June 202416%31%53%

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PollBetterSame Compared to a Year AgoWorse
February 201025%41%34%
September 201031%41%27%
October 201027%40%32%
February 201128%44%27%
May 201126%45%27%
October 201120%48%33%
February 201226%51%23%
May 201229%50%20%
October 201240%47%13%
June 201335%43%23%
October 201333%41%26%
February 201437%40%23%
June 201441%39%19%
October 201440%39%19%
February 201539%46%15%
June 201537%48%14%
November 201533%46%20%
February 201628%51%19%
June 201630%49%19%
October 201643%42%14%
February 201723%49%26%
June 201717%56%26%
October 201716%55%28%
February 201818%51%29%
June 201820%48%31%
October 201815%49%33%
February 201920%46%32%
June 201920%47%32%
October 201922%44%30%
February 202020%49%29%
April 202018%32%48%
June 202014%36%48%
October 202012%44%41%
February 202117%49%30%
March 202122%51%23%
April 202123%52%20%
June 202128%49%20%
August 202125%50%23%
October 202124%49%24%
February 202229%42%28%
April 202224%42%31%
June 202218%41%40%
August 202222%46%29%
October 202217%43%37%
December 202221%42%36%
February 202325%39%33%
April 202326%40%32%
June 202325%43%30%
August 202326%40%33%
October 202325%39%33%
December 202331%41%25%
February 202438%38%22%
April 202435%39%24%
June 202432%39%26%

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Key issues: Border spending

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categoryTotal
Too little29%
Too much30%
About the right amount24%
Don't know/No opinion17%

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CategoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Too little13%32%45%
Too much51%32%11%
About the right amount17%16%33%
Don't know/No opinion20%20%11%

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CategoryLean conservativeSomewhat conservativeExtremely conservative
Too little42%47%42%
Too much12%13%14%
About the right amount33%30%30%
Don't know/No opinion13%10%14%

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CategoryWhiteBlackHispanic
Too little33%25%20%
Too much27%27%38%
About the right amount25%26%24%
Don't know/No opinion15%22%17%

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CategoryUrbanSuburbanRural
Too little27%28%34%
Too much34%30%22%
About the right amount21%24%28%
Don't know/No opinion18%17%16%

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Key issues: Private money/public school

Respondents were asked, "Please tell us whether you would support or oppose the following proposal: Redirecting state tax revenue to help parents pay for some of the cost of sending their children to private or parochial schools."

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categoryTotal
Strongly support21%
Somewhat support24%
Somewhat oppose12%
Strongly oppose28%
Don’t know/No opinion15%

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CategoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Strongly support10%20%30%
Somewhat support15%27%31%
Somewhat oppose15%15%8%
Strongly oppose44%18%19%
Don’t know/No opinion16%20%12%

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CategoryLean conservativeSomewhat conservativeExtremely conservative
Strongly support19%30%43%
Somewhat support41%30%25%
Somewhat oppose9%9%4%
Strongly oppose22%18%17%
Don’t know/No opinion8%13%10%

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CategoryWhiteBlackHispanic
Strongly support24%19%14%
Somewhat support24%24%23%
Somewhat oppose11%10%14%
Strongly oppose30%21%31%
Don’t know/No opinion11%26%19%

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CategoryUrbanSuburbanRural
Strongly support16%22%25%
Somewhat support27%23%23%
Somewhat oppose12%12%10%
Strongly oppose29%29%25%
Don’t know/No opinion16%14%16%

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Key issues: Abortion

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categoryTotal
More strict18%
Less strict50%
Left as they are now25%
Don't know/No opinion8%

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CategoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
More strict10%12%25%
Less strict78%39%26%
Left as they are now6%33%42%
Don't know/No opinion6%16%7%

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categoryTotal
The woman is not married and does not want to marry.34%
The woman is married and does not want any more children.34%
The family has very low income and cannot afford any more children.31%
There is a strong chance of a serious birth defect.16%
The woman became pregnant as a result of rape.12%
The woman became pregnant as a result of incest.11%
The woman’s health is seriously endangered.5%

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CategoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
The woman is not married and does not want to marry.9%40%54%
The woman is married and does not want any more children.10%40%54%
The family has very low income and cannot afford any more children.9%35%49%
There is a strong chance of a serious birth defect.4%18%26%
The woman became pregnant as a result of rape.4%12%17%
The woman became pregnant as a result of incest.4%12%17%
The woman’s health is seriously endangered.2%8%7%

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categoryTotal
Expand legal access to abortion services50%
Penalize companies that pay for abortion related travel expenses29%
Dedicate more state resources to enforcing the state’s ban on abortion26%
Prevent women from accessing abortion in states where abortion is still legal26%
Prevent women from receiving medicated abortion pills through the mail25%

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CategoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Expand legal access to abortion services78%39%28%
Penalize companies that pay for abortion related travel expenses12%24%44%
Dedicate more state resources to enforcing the state’s ban on abortion13%19%39%
Prevent women from accessing abortion in states where abortion is still legal13%19%39%
Prevent women from receiving medicated abortion pills through the mail9%20%38%

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Too much27%
About the right amount16%
Too little39%
Don't know/No opinion18%

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CategoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Too much7%26%49%
About the right amount13%14%19%
Too little66%37%14%
Don't know/No opinion14%24%18%

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Key issues: guns

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categoryTotal
More strict55%
Less strict15%
Left as they are now24%
Don't know/No opinion6%

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CategoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
More strict87%38%27%
Less strict7%18%22%
Left as they are now3%29%46%
Don't know/No opinion4%14%4%

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categoryTotal
Approve strongly24%
Approve somewhat18%
Neither approve nor disapprove12%
Disapprove somewhat6%
Disapprove strongly35%
Don't know5%

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CategoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Approve strongly5%18%44%
Approve somewhat6%10%32%
Neither approve nor disapprove5%24%14%
Disapprove somewhat5%15%3%
Disapprove strongly75%20%3%
Don't know4%14%3%

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Enough22%
Too much4%
Too little57%
Don't know/No opinion17%

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CategoryDemocratIndependentRepublican
Enough5%20%39%
Too much3%0%5%
Too little86%60%32%
Don't know/No opinion5%20%25%

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Keywords: 88th legislature, state of the state address, greg abbott