Blogs: Daron Shaw

In several races, Tuesday's election results didn't match the findings of the University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll two weeks earlier. What happened?

The latest UT/TT Poll showing a single-digit lead for Greg Abbott over Wendy Davis in the gubernatorial race raised some eyebrows. Adding some context to a survey taken more than a year before Election Day helps provide some clarity on the results.

By increasing our sample size and providing more analyses of the data in our blog, we hope to provide interested parties with what they seek: in-depth coverage of the actors and issues that are driving important parts of the political process in the state.

The latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll has a bigger sample size than its predecessors — the better to see what various subgroups of Texans are thinking about politics and policy in the state.

So how to create a likely voter model? Campaign pollsters typically use a combination of past voting history — available off the registered voter list — and current interest and engagement. Those who have voted in the past, as well as those who are jazzed about voting this year, tend to get into the likely electorate.

Make no mistake: A Democrat running in a statewide race in Texas who is not losing by double-digits is doing relatively well. But this raises the larger question: Can Bill White actually win?

At this point, anti-incumbent sentiment in Texas appears to be dwarfed by party identification and opposition to the national Democratic Party.

An election that initially favored Sen. Hutchison has settled into a contest where Sen. Hutchison’s support is in the high 20’s while Gov. Perry’s is in the mid-40’s.

The University of Texas / Texas Tribune poll, conducted from February 1-7, shows Gov. Rick Perry holding a 24-point lead over U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Republican gubernatorial primary contest, with Debra Medina posing a surprisingly strong challenge to Hutchison for second place.

The UT/Tribune poll results convey some very intense disapproval of political leadership.